It’s a collaboration between many people, including area scouts, cross-checkers, minor league coaches and the players themselves, but as much as anyone, the task of developing pitchers for the Texas Rangers falls to Minor League Pitching Coordinator Rick Adair who gave me an hour of his time this week to talk about his philosophy for developing young arms from the ground up.

"The first thing we do when we bring a young kid in is try to do nothing," Adair began. "We want to take a good look at the raw material— what our scouts saw —and then we evaluate and go from there. Over time, we try to understand what kind of pitcher a kid can be and work towards developing a plan for him."

Not until fall instructionals will Adair begin to seriously tinker with a kid, adding a pitch, taking one away, altering his delivery…. "Unless we see something mechanically that we feel is dangerous, we’ll just leave the kid alone for awhile."

Ideally, Adair wants to develop arm speed and curve balls. "We’ll almost never take a curve away from a player and if we think he has a chance to develop a plus curve, we’ll give him every opportunity to do so. You see a lot of guys who go fastball, slider, but even in the big leagues, there aren’t a lot of quality curve ball guys anymore. Plus, the change in velocity between a quality fastball and a curve is much greater than with a slider, so it helps make the fastball more effective; makes both pitches more effective, actually."

On the issue of developing the four-seam fastball, Adair is passionate. "You’ve got to develop the arm speed and hand speed. You take a kid out of high school, for instance, and if all he does is throw sinkers, by the time he’s 22, 23, he’s lost velocity. Now, I don’t think that velocity is the be-all, end-all, but arm speed is really key to every pitch, and developing the four-seamer is the best way to develop arm speed and hand speed which not only gives them power, but it improves the action on secondary pitches."

Adair says that he doesn’t order a set amount of pitches— x number of fastballs, x number of breaking balls, etc.— but that "we have an individual plan for each of our guys that we all know front and back, and that’s something that we want to see carried out," adding that "we don’t necessarily preach development over results, but at the same time, I don’t get caught up in statistics. Actually, I really don’t even look at wins or losses or things like that. What looks like a bad night to someone else might be exactly what we wanted from a kid. We’re looking at all sorts of things that don’t show up in the box score— attitude on the mound, composure, improvement —so it can be misleading to read too much into traditional statistics. You have to look at development over a period of time. Month-to-month, are they getting better?"

Asked to name some of the guys whose development he is particularly pleased with at this point, Adair named Eric Hurley, Michael Schlact, Omar Poveda, Kea Kometani, John Bannister and Jake Rasner as well as Nick Masset, whose turnaround, according to Adair, is the result of "maturity.  On and off the mound."

"I think Nick took a look around this winter and saw what Kam Loe’s done— a guy he was coming up with— and realized he could have that too. He’s good enough."

As for Clinton’s man-child Poveda, who turned 18 in late September, Adair was quick to point out that the 6’4" 200 pounder has been "a little unlucky with the wins (0-5) so far, but he’s throwing the ball real well."   Adair pointed out that Poveda had surgery this winter to repair a deviated septum that prevented the Venezuelan from getting adequate sleep and hindered his growth.

"Here’s a kid with a tremendous lower body and he’s really starting to blossom physically now that we’ve got him healthy. We like his attitude and demeanor a lot. The thing we have to work on with Omar is that his change is so good, he wants to rely on it too much right now. I don’t know what he can be yet, but I think with his age and body and approach, there’s a great opportunity for him to improve a lot over the next few years."

Schlact and Kometani— roomates at Bakersfield —were both cited for gaining velocity since joining the system and working their individual plans, featuring more four-seamers.   

Kometani, who wields a tremendous splitter, was reported to top out at 86-87 when he came into the system. Now, Adair says, he’s hitting 92.   And Adair thinks that there’s more where that came from, as there is with Schlact, who is "hitting 93-94 now, and he really was a 90 mph guy last year. He’s got such great length with that body and that can be a weapon when he develops his power potential."

Danks, says Adair, is still in the process of "deciding what kind of pitcher he wants to be. He’s gained velocity, the change is a plus pitch now, and that’s partly because he’s added some velocity to his fastball. John’s done a good job of working his plan and it’s made him a better pitcher."

What becomes clear in talking with Adair is something I tried to underscore in my post last week: there’s a lot more going on with prospects than meets the eye. You simply can’t look at broad, basic stats and draw too many conclusions. Not only do they fail to tell the story of what is going on with a kid, but as often as not, they are simply misleading.

The work that prospect guru John Sickels does,  essentially doing for 30 clubs–all by himself–what I do for one club, is nothing short of phenomenal, but a recent post on his excellent website minorleagueball.com really puzzled me.

In a feature entitled "What Is Wrong with These Prospects?", Sickels started his list off with John Danks and, after concluding that Danks is "quite hittable" and overmatched in the Double-A Texas League, writes that "[Danks] is just 21 years old, so as long as he is healthy, yes there is hope. But Danks’ timetable has to be pushed back. He won’t see Texas this year, and unless he turns things around soon, a refresher course in A-ball should be on the table."

Wow.  That’s quite a statement.  Almost makes it sound like Danks is tetering on the verge of becoming an abject failure, holding on to a thin thread of hope.

Now, realize that in his last three starts, Danks has pitched 18 innings, made three quality starts, fanned 28, walked five, posted an ERA of 3.00 and held the opposition to a .197 batting average.   

Please Lord:  gimme more failures like that.

As much as I respect Mr. Sickels, I find it hard to believe that anyone could suggest that a pitcher on a roll like that needs "a refresher course in A-ball."

Now, I know that Mr. Sickels knows better, and I don’t mean to belittle him in any way, but what this example shows you is that it can often be very misleading to look at a prospect’s overall numbers and draw some sort of conclusion about his ability or readiness for a particular level of competition.

Overall, Danks is 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA and over the course of his eight starts this year, the league has hit .305 off of him.    So sure, if you looked at his stats overall, you might conclude that he’s a struggling pitcher, but obviously, that’s not the case.

Prospect development is, far more often than not, a process.  Few kids drop from the sky, fully formed and ready for big league action.  Sometimes, a kid is going through an adjustment period.  Sometimes, as is the case with Danks, he’s focused more on developing his overall game for the long haul and sacrificing success in the short term.   

What I’ve learned (or , at least, what I’ve come to believe) is that the key indicator to understanding where a prospect is on the learning curve is look for improvement over a period of time.   My favorite recent example of this phemomenon is Kameron Loe.   

In 2003, Loe came out of nowhere to establish himself as perhaps the most dominant pitcher in Low-A ball, posting a 1.95 ERA in 97 innings, earning a promotion to the High-A California League where, impossibly, he was even better, posting a 0.96 ERA over 37.2 frames.

Loe was given a spot in the Frisco rotation to begin the 2004 season and more than one expert told me that they expected him to essentially reach the end of the road: that Loe lacked the stuff to succeed in double A. And through his first month, the naysayers looked pretty smart as the 6’8" right hander went 0-3 with a 5.06 ERA and the league pounded him at a .294 clip.

But Loe hung in there and got a little better, going 2-2 / 4.24 / .338 in May. He improved some more in June, going 4-1 / 2.47 / .248 and by the time July rolled around, Loe was proving himself to be far too much for the league to handle, going 1-1 / 1.24 / .228.

Moving on to the PCL, Loe was crushed in July with a 7.50 ERA, but then (of course) he got better, putting up a 2.97 mark in August and a 1.29 in September, earning a callup to the big club.  He’s continued to improve ever since. I’m just glad that no one gave up on Loe when he was posting a 7.50 ERA during his first month in Triple-A.

Here, I want to focus on a couple of guys who are showing signs of the sort of consistent improvement that I like to see in a prospect.

Anthony Webster:   Outfielder, Double-A Frisco

One of three players obtained by former General Manger John Hart for outfielder Carl Everett in a July, 2003 trade with the White Sox, Webster was once a highly recruited running back prospect who was offered a gridiron scholarship to Tennessee.   Since then, he’s been one of those prospects whose production hasn’t lived up to his "tools."   But I really like what I’m seeing from him over the past 12 months.

After getting off to a terrible start at High-A Bakersfield in 2005 (.224 / .253 / .395 in 76 April at-bats; .222 / .263 / .322 in 90 May at-bats) and going 0-4 on June 1, Webster went on a tear, hitting .344 / .375 / .611 for the month. He turned in a strong .296 / 361 / .444 July and amped it up again in August when he .383 / .431 / .567.   

Moving up to Double-A Frisco, Webster was a mess through the first month of the season, hitting .183 / .265 / .283 and looking at least as bad as those numbers would indicate.  But since the beginning of May, he’s been a different hitter altogether.  In 50 at-bats this month, Webster has hit a ridiculous   .440 / .462 / .560 and last night (May 16), he saw a 10 game hitting streak come to an end.

When so-called "tools" guys start to figure things out, they can explode and that may be the case with Webster.  Will he continue to hit .440?  Of course not, but Webster has the physical ability and now, the track record over a twelve-month period, to suggest that his breakout is for real.

Junior Mayberry, Jr.:   Outfielder,  Low-A Clinton

The story on Junior Mayberry coming out of Stanford was that he had a habit of tinkering too much with his swing, which was too long, and worked too hard to go the other way with everything, depriving the 6’6",  235 lb. rock of a lot of his projectable power.  And when the Rangers took him with their first round pick in last June’s amateur draft (19th overall), they set to work to find a new swing that Mayberry could settle in with and that would essentially retrain him to turn on the ball a little more often.

"We did some things with his swing after we drafted him that started to pay dividends in the (short-season Northwest League) last year," Rangers Farm Director Scott Servais told Baseball America earlier this spring. "Hopefully he’ll continue along those lines."

Among the changes the Rangers asked their big man to make was moving closer to the plate, attempting to train him to shorten his swing and turn on the inside pitch.

And Mayberry was asked to make some other changes as well.  A three-year starter at first base for Stanford, Mayberry moved to right field.   It was certainly a move that made sense for the man that Baseball America ranked as the best pure athlete in the 2005 draft, but still, it was a lot to throw at  a young man, even one as grounded and intelligent as Mayberry.

But Mayberry seems to have taken his lessons to heart and there are signs that he’s going to emerge from the retooling as the improved hitter the Rangers thought he  could be when they drafted him.

After getting off to a decent start to his pro career last summer (.243 / .349 / .514 in 37 June at-bats), Mayberry suffered through a miserable month and a half.   He hit a powerless .222 / .298 / .324 in 108 July at-bats.

A 1-13 start to August seemed to portend more of the same, but then Mayberry went on a 10-25 run. That was followed by a brief 0-12 swoon, but then he went on a 9-18 run to end the month and when September arrived, Mayberry turned it up, hitting .423 / .464 / .962 with four homers in 26 at-bats, leading the Indians to the playoffs.

His first full season  was delayed by a minor hamstring injury and he reported for duty in Clinton on April 17.     While he showed his power immediately, Mayberry struggled otherwise through his first two weeks of action, hitting .200 / .294 / .533 in 45 April at-bats,  fanning 17 times.   But since May rolled around, he’s quietly gotten much better.   Through his first 60 at-bats of the month, Mayberry has hit .283 / .371 / .433, while walking more  often and striking out less often. 

Expectations are inevitably high for a first rounder, especially one with Mayberry’s physical tools, big-league pedigree (his father John, Sr., was a two-time all-star for the Royals), and big-time collegiate background, and Mayberry probably hasn’t lived up to most people’s expectations of him so far, but realize that the Rangers are far more concerned  with this guy rebuilding  his swing and  learning a  new  philosophy of hitting than in his short-term numbers. 

We’ll be keeping a very close eye on Mayberry’s progress this summer.   With his raw ability and the emerging pattern of improvement he’s shown over the past year, Mayberry could be a monster by the  end of the summer.

Mike Hindman

Here’s the deal:   Rangers 2003 third rounder John Hudgins, a right-handed pitcher, and 2003 second rounder Vincent Sinisi, a lefty  first baseman / outfielder, leave the Texas organization for Padres’ Triple-A center fielder Freddy Guzman and 19 year old right-hander Cesar Rojas.

Texas gets the sort of player they’ve coveted for quite awhile now, a plus center fielder with game-changing speed,  plus a big young, raw arm, which the Rangers development team also favors.

San Diego gets two players who are much better fits for their program than they are in Texas, and thus more valuable to the Padres than they were to the Rangers:    a smart, crafty fly-ball pitcher and a pure, left-handed gap hitter who can exploit the big alleys in Petco Park.

I like the deal for everyone involved.  Here’s a rundown on the players:

Freddy Antonio Guzman:   .274 / .348 / .411 with 11 SB’s @ Triple-A Portland  (assigned to Triple-A Oklahoma)

Off and on this winter, rumors circulated that the Rangers were interested in acquiring Tampa Bay center fielder Joey Gathright, universally regarded as the fastest man in baseball.   It turns out that Texas probably couldn’t have come up with a deal ridiculous enough to get Gathright–Tampa later turned down an offer of Florida’s outstanding left-handed rookie Scott Olsen for their speedster.  But a few months down the road, they got a guy who might prove to be Gathright’s equal…for a lot less than Tampa wanted for Gathright.

Switch-hittting Freddy Guzman is clearly the fastest man in the minors now that Gathright has graduated to the majors and he’s an exceedingly gifted base stealer.    In 2002, Guzman stole 69 bases while getting caught a dozen times.  In 2003, he stole 90 bags…in only 107 tries.   In 2004, he stole 70 in 82 attempts.  He went into the 2005 season expected to win a job as the Padres center fielder, but he blew out his elbow in the spring and lost the season to Tommy John ligament replacement surgery.

San Diego sent veteran scout Bill Clark to an open workout in the Dominican Republic in the spring of 2000 where he timed a "Pedro de los Santos" (Guzman) at 6.5 in the 60 yard dash.  He immediately offered a $15,000.00 signing bonus and brought the 19 year old to Arizona in March, 2000.

Guzman began  his career as a second baseman but midway through his second year at the keystone, he broke his leg breaking up a double play and missed the  rest of the season.  That winter as he was preparing for his return to action, Guzman requested a move to center  field  and he took to it like a duck to water.  Immediately, according to one report, his left-right range topped  the scouting  charts and  he showed tremendous  instincts.

He is considered to have double-plus range (obviously) and makes good reads, but his arm is considered a bit below average.  Small, at 5’10",  165 lbs., he’ll never hit for much power, but he makes good contact, has always displayed solid plate discipline, and–it goes without saying–can get singles that would be garden-variety ground ball outs for most everyone else.

This year, Guzman has fanned 19 times and walked 14 times in 124 at-bats and those ratios have been consistent throughout his career.  In 2004, he drew 30 walks and struck out 46 times in 264 at-bats for Triple-A Portland.

This year, the switch-hitter has gotten to lefties at a .296 / .367 / .407 clip and is hitting .268 / .343 / .412 against right-handers.    In 2004 at Triple-A Portland, he  hit .292 / .376 / .361 against righties and .290 / .328 / .435 against lefties.  At Double-A Mobile, he hit .295 / .404 / .352 against right-handers and .260 / .269 / .400 against southpaws.

Guzman will be assigned to Oklahoma for now, but he should be in Arlington before long.  Some see Guzman as a prototype center fielder while others will tell you that he doesn’t have what it takes to be an everyday player, but in either case, his speed and defensive capabilities in center make him a valuable asset and the best player in this deal.

Cesar A. Rojas:   2-4;  6.75 ERA @ Arizona Rookie League Padres in 2005

Rojas, a 19 year old Venezuelan, is exactly the sort of pitcher the Rangers have targeted lately–and the antithesis of John Hudgins.  He’s big (6’3",  200 lbs.) and throws very hard (Rangers scouts had him at 95 this spring).   he also throws a slider and a change.    San Diego signed him for a six-figure bonus back in July, 2002.   He’ll simply move about ten miles down Bell Road from Padres extended spring training in Peoria to Rangers camp in Surprise.

John Hudgins:   1-1;  6.38 ERA @ Triple-A Oklahoma (assigned to Double-A Mobile)

It seemed inevitable that, someday, John Hudgins would somehow end up in the Padres organization after his bigget supporter in the Rangers organization, Grady Fuson, left Texas for San Diego where he is Vice President of Player Development and Scouting.   Hudgins, a smart, savvy collegiate pitcher is the sort of pitcher that Fuson coveted, but that the current Rangers development staff probably would not have drafted in the first place.

Hudgins entered professional baseball coming off of one of the more heroic efforts in College World Series history, earning a CWS MVP award in spite of the fact that his Stanford Cardinal did not take home the top prize.  After a truncated first professional season, Hudgins soared through the High-A Cal League before making a seamless transition to Double-A ball in 2004.

Hudgins began 2004 in the High-A Cal League where he went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA before executing a seamless transition to Double-A Frisco that July. In his first month as a Texas Leaguer, Hudgins went 2-2 / 2.45 and held the league to a .203 average through six starts.   He finished up going 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 12 starts, holding the league to a .226 average and recording 64 strikeouts in 69 innings.

Hudgins figured to start the 2005 season in the Oklahoma rotation, but as spring training drew to a close, there were rumblings that he would return to Frisco, where he wouldn’t even have a spot in the rotation. One source told us that they were contemplating grooming him for an R.A.. Dickey-style long man role. At the 11th hour, however, Hudgins was named the opening day starter for the RoughRiders and landed in the Oklahoma rotation after three solid Texas League starts.   

Overall, Hudgins final numbers in Oklahoma last year were terrible.  He went 3-7 with a 5.87 ERA, but what is easily forgotten in light of his final numbers is that Hudgins was outstanding early on for the RedHawks, posting a 2.88 ERA in six May starts.  He struggled in five June starts (7.33) and was even worse in July (8.80 in six starts).   But Hudgins had been pitching in pain all year and by the end of July, it was clear that there was no point in going further and he was shut down for the season.  Doctors found a calcium deposit growing in Hudgins’ elbow that had been grinding on the soft tissues, causing pain and inflammation.  He underwent minor surgery to correct the problem in August and returned to action without physical problems this spring.

Hudgins reminds me a bit of Rick Helling (and that’s not just because both were aces at Stanford).  Both hit double A with little more than a cup of coffee in A ball. Helling made 26 starts in the Texas League, posting a 3.60 ERA in Tulsa and Hudgins made 12 starts, posting a 3.13 ERA in Frisco. Like Helling in his prime, Hudgins brings a fastball that sits at 88-90, but is unafraid of challenging hitters with it nonetheless.   Like Helling, Hudgins is a pronounced fly-ball pitcher who gives up too many dingers.   Hudgins yielded 12 jacks in 69 Texas League frames back in 2004.   For frame of reference, Kameron Loe gave up 5 in 113  innings that same year.   

At his best, Hudgins outsmarts hitters. Aside from his outstanding change up which he "sells" by appearing to dramatically overthrow, he doesn’t possess plus stuff, but his intelligence, attitude and approach should allow him to succeed anyway.  In light of his fly-ball extremisim (0.69 G/F ratio this year) and propensity for giving up the long ball, however, he’s certainly a much better fit in San Diego’s spacious Petco Park than at Ameriquest Field in Arlington.

Vincent Sinisi:   .220 / .298 / .300 @ Triple-A Oklahoma / .309 / .373 / .368 @ Double-A Frisco  (assigned to Double-A Mobile)

Since winning an NCAA national championship for Rice University in 2003, Sinsi’s luck has been positively awful. Sinisi’s career (and possibly his life) were threatened by a horrible turn of events following a July 2004 outfield collision in which the Rice alum suffered a complex fracture of his forearm. A relentless staph infection ultimately necessitated seven surgeries before the arm could begin to heal correctly and Sinisi spent spring training 2005 sitting and watching.

He got off to a late start, missing the first five weeks of the season before reporting to Bakersfield for duty in mid-May. Relatively speaking, he got off to a slow start once he reported, hitting .295/ .354 / .386 in 44 at-bats during the month. He admitted to the DMN’s Todd Wills that he didn’t feel comfortable upon his return, saying that "everything was real fast at first."

Dom Chiti told Wills that Sinisi would have to "play his way out of the [California] league," and when June rolled around, that’s precisely what Sinisi did by hitting an absurd .398 / .480 / .716 in 88 at-bats for the month.

Sinisi hit the ground running in Frisco, going 11-23 with a homer and three doubles in his first 23 at-bats, but then things went south in a hurry and he suffered through a 2-31 slump before going on to finish July with a .175 / .237 / .214 line for the month. He rebounded in August going .296 /.333 /.398, but he clearly wasn’t himself.   He looked tired and, on occasion, disinterested. 

Back in good health for the first time in a long time, Sinisi hit his  way out of Frisco this spring, hitting .309 / .373 / .368.   Of concern, obviously, was the fact that Sinisi–who will be limited defensively to either first base or left field–did not demonstrate the sort of power that one would see from  a corner infielder or outfielder, especially one who doesn’t bring plus defense to the table.

Prior to this year, Sinisi has projected as a strict platoon guy, with lopsided splits.  Southpaws have usually dominated the sweet-swinging lefty, but this year, Sinisi tuned up lefties at a .462 / .563 / .615 clip at Frisco, albeit in just 13 at-bats.  In Oklahoma, he’s hit .333 / .333 / .500 against lefties in a dozen at-bats.

Mike Hindman

Each year I have the pleasure of going to Surprise for spring training and when I
go, I scarcely set foot anywhere near a big leaguer. You can find me in over the

kiddie pool, watching young Rangers prospects gear up for a new season, looking for

the next big thing. As I gear up to spend another six months of my life getting up in

the middle of the night to write recaps of every minor league game played in the

Rangers system, this is where I get the fuel to power that endeavor.

In this installment of the Texas Rangers Farm Report, I’m going to get into the

impressive things I observed in Surprise last week, but before I do so, I want to

attempt to provide some context that might help those of you who haven’t had the

pleasure of being there to understand what’s happening on those back fields at the

Surprise Stadium complex where minor league camp is held.

Through my spring trips to Surprise, I’ve come to think of baseball being almost

exactly like another sport that my family was involved in when I was growing up:

horse racing. Those who play the Sport of Kings at the highest levels (we didn’t, but

I saw it done) play a numbers game: each year, they accumulate a large number of

yearlings purchased at sales that take place in the summer (the June amateur draft).

In the fall, the yearlings are sent off to a training center to be broken

(instructional league) and the following spring, they are put into training (spring

training) where a bunch of paunchy older men stand around with their arms crossed,

peering out from beneath the bills of ballcaps pulled down over their furrowed brows,

stop watches dangling around their thick necks, watching the colts being put through

their paces, constantly evaluating every little detail of the way they move, behave,

and learn.

Some of the colts will be ready to race in the summer at age two (an assignment to

Clinton for the especially precocious). Some will need more time (stay behind in

extended spring training) to race later in the summer (AZL or Spokane). Some won’t be

ready until they are three and some won’t make it at all. By the time that equine

equivalent to spring training is two or three months along, the yearlings have

started to weed themselves out. You generally have a pretty good idea which ones can

do what. Long before they hit the track to race in the afternooons, the best trainers

can spot the real race horses.

Virtually the same pattern plays itself out in minor league camp. More than 130

kids are spread out over four fields for morning workouts, ususally working on

specific skills (baserunning, pickoffs, etc.), batting practice, and bullpen

sessions. No names on jerseys. They are here one minute and gone the next. It is

semi-organized chaos, but a couple of dozen (usually) paunchy older men stand around,

arms crossed, peering out from beneath the visors of ballcaps with stop watches

dangling around their necks, evaluating every little thing they see. They observe,

take mental notes, teach, cajole, give a pat on the back or a kick in the behind when

needed. And they are, at all times, filing away information that will decide the

futures of these kids.

For one week each year, I get to observe all of this going on. Any notion of

getting a comprehensive look at things is ridiculous. You just catch what you can,

but if you’re lucky, one of the young colts will stand out. What I can give you is

observations. Incomplete observations. We can’t give you final lines or stats. We can

tell you that we saw something that stood out, but that doesn’t necessarily rule out

the possibility that while our attention was diverted to the other field, the same

guy didn’t do something to counterbalance that observed moment, one way or another.

In short, there are many obvious shortcomings in this process that make it difficult

to evaluate what a kid is or is not.

But there are unique benefits as well including, especially, the intense

concentration of action. There is almost no down time in spring camp when there is a

little down time, you can still watch and learn something about what makes a kid

tick. You can get a feel for who really loves what they are doing and where they are.

You get a feel for who has the sort of work ethic that is necessary to get the most

out of his tools. You are close enough to the action that you can see and hear how

kids react to things that might give you a little insight into what kind of

competitors they are.

Over the course of a week, I think it’s safe to say that you do begin to recognize

quality when you see it. Watching six guys throw bullpen sessions in a row at the

same time makes it easier to spot the special arm. Seeing 15 kids take BP in one

session helps you learn to recognize the difference between the ones with some

lightning in their sticks and the ones who don’t. If one guy stands out, over and

over again, that usually means something.

Two years ago, Ian Kinsler and Joaquin Arias stood out like sore thumbs and went

on to emerge as top prospects that summer. Last year, I couldn’t help but take note

of the way that everyone was talking about Edinson Volquez or the way that there were

always five time as many people watching whatever he did then there were watching

almost anyone else as they were put through their paces. Every time you saw him,

Travis Metcalf did something impressive. Same with Drew Meyer and Kevin Mahar. All

four went on to have tremendous seasons.

This year, as always, I spent as much time as possible observing the youngest

players in camp, most of whom came into the Rangers system over the past two years

and the difference between the players who will fill the rosters at those lower

levels this year and the ones who have done so over the past few years is both

obvious and significant.

The newest Rangers–especially the pitchers–are bigger, stronger, younger, probably

less refined but more innately talented than their predecessors. I saw a lot more

mid-90′s fastballs than I’ve seen in the low-level games than ever before, but I also

saw a lot more wild pitches, batters hit by pitches, and four-pitch walks. I saw

bigger, better arms in the outfield and more speed on the bases, but I also saw much

sloppier play: missed cutoff men and weak popups falling harmlessly to the ground

because nobody made a call.

While the impression made by the youngest Rangers was generally good, there

weren’t a lot of examples of guys who, right now, seem to have the total package of

raw athletic ability, advanced baseball skills and what I call a high baseball I.Q.,

which is to say that they make good decisions on the field, execute intelligent

at-bats, have solid instincts, and react with confidence to situations.

More than anyone, the player who stood out in this regard–the player whose

athletic ability, baseball skills and baseball I.Q. all seemed to be outstanding–was

the Rangers second round choice in the 2005 draft, third baseman Johnny

Whittleman from Kingwood, Texas.

Whittleman, a high school shortstop and quarterback, is an outstanding athlete

with excellent feet, a strong arm, and much better speed than I’d been led to

believe. His left-handed swing is simply a thing of beauty. Whittleman’s physical

gifts are obvious, but they don’t necessarily set him apart in this group of young

players. Physical gifts are abundant on the lowest-level minor league fields this

year.

Whittleman is also very clearly a leader in his group, plays technically sound

baseball, reacts confidently in the field, works pitchers to get the pitch he wants

at the plate, and plays his behind off all the time. And when he’s done dazzling you

on the ballfield, you talk to John Lombardo, the Rangers’ director of minor league

operations, and he tells you that what impresses the Rangers most about Whittleman is

his work ethic (calling him “a man on a mission”), and you realize that this kid is

the total package.

Junior Mayberry’s physical gifts, as considerable as they are,

just barely overshadow his presence. The bright, charismatic 2005 first rounder is

popular with his teammates and a very hard worker, committed to improvement. As he

continues to retool his swing, there are some awkward moments, but when he gets it

dialed in, his raw power is breathtaking. You just don’t see a lot of 400 foot line

drives. I saw Mayberry hit two…in consecutive at-bats.

Other observations from camp:

The two teenaged pitchers who led the Low-A Clinton LumberKings to the playoffs

last year, 6’4" Eric Hurley and 6’7" Michael

Schlact, taken in the first and third rounds, respectively, of the 2004

draft, are very different pitchers but both very impressive.

Hurley–who has filled out significantly since last year–fired off a dozen or so

fastballs in a two-inning stint against Royals minor leaguers, none of which came in

below 93 mph and a few of which hit 96. He also dealt a couple of 84 mph sliders with

sharp, late break.

Schlact, one of the most pronounced ground-ball pitchers in the system, throws

everything at the knees. Often with extremely tall pitchers like Schlact, scouts will

note that they have trouble repeating their delivery. In other words, big kids with

lots of long moving parts struggle to get their bodies to do the same thing over and

over again, leading to a lack of control. Schlact appears to have the ability to

locate the ball extremely well and also appears to have added velocity to his

fastball.

Among the pitchers selected in the 2005 draft, 6’4" lefty Mike

Kirkman appears to be the most advanced. He demonstrated command of four

pitches that are all above average. Other pitchers seemed to be uniformly impressed

with Kirkman which, for me, is very significant.

The Rangers’ intensified efforts to cultivate a presence in Latin America over the

past couple of years was obvious this spring. Pitcher Fabio Castillo

and catcher Cristian Santana, both of whom just recently turned 17,

demonstrated incredible physical ability. Santana, a vocal and active backstop, is

amazingly gifted and appeared to be one of the fastest players in camp, extremely

rare for a catcher. Castillo, who stands about 6’4", already throws in the

mid-90′s and appeared to be eager to learn anything and everything the minor league

pitching coaches could offer. Second baseman Jose Vallejo , a flashy

fielder with quick hands and feet, is learning to switch hit to take advantage of his

incredible speed. He makes a very strong impression in everything he does.

I didn’t get a chance to see him myself, but every player I talked to about

Armando Galarraga, the pitcher acquired along with Brad Wilkerson in

the Alfonso Soriano trade, was very impressed with the 6’4" Venezuelan.

I’ve always been a big John Danks fan but after seeing him pitch

in a big league game against the Giants in Scottsdale, I’m more impressed than ever

before. In addition to his fabulous talent, the kid proved that he has guts, a lethal

combination.

In about a week and a half, most of these colts will hit the track to race and

we’ll be keeping you up to date with weekly reports on their progress right here. If

you want daily recaps, please stop by newbergreport.com or e-mail me to be put on our

list for complete, daily coverage of every minor league game played in the Rangers

minor league system.

Mike Hindman is a contributor to

texasrangers.com.

In my first entry here, I talked about finding kids who are on the verge of breaking out of anonymity and into the upper echelon of prospects. There are three principal ways to find these diamonds in the rough: (1) study the stats closely; (2) talk to other players, scouts and folks in the organization to see who they really like; and finally (3) see for yourself. When I weigh in with next week’s report, I’ll have the benefit of having seen virtually every single one of the more than 130 kids in minor league camp and I’ll talk to plenty of folks who will have insights into who is starting to blossom. For now, however, what I’d like to do is talk about how we go about identifying potential breakout candidates from a close study of statistics alone and show you five guys whose core numbers–whether just downright horrible or generally average–are, in my opinion, misleading. In no particular order, we’ll talk about C.J. Wilson (“The Rush Job”); Mike Nickeas (“The Three Level Jump”); Johnny Lujan (“The Epiphany”); Vincent Sinisi (“The Brutal Injury”) and Michael Schlact (“The Student”). Each of these five players is, I believe, a substantially better player today than his overall core stats from 2005 would suggest. I’ll do my best to explain why I think that is the case in each of these very different cases:

1) C.J. Wilson: “The Rush Job"

Lost in all of the talk about the DVD boys is a guy who you saw getting his head handed to him in Arlington last summer, but who belongs in any discussion of the best young arms in the system. I think that C.J. Wilson is going to help the Rangers this year. And the year after that. And for years to come.

The Core Numbers: Wilson went 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA in four appearances at High-A Bakersfield. Nice, but he was among the oldest pitcher in the league. He went 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA at Double-A Frisco and 1-7 with a 6.94 ERA for the Rangers.

The Misunderstanding: On both occasions when Wilson was called up to join the Rangers last summer, the club suffered a massive beating from the local media who, to paraphrase, ridiculed club officials for calling up a guy who “couldn’t get Double-A hitters out and wasn’t even that great in Bakersfield.”

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: For one thing, Wilson was returning to action after missing a year and a half rehabilitating an elbow reconstructed in a Tommy John surgery. Seeing his first action since the long layoff, Wilson was wicked in spring training against big leaguers (4 IP, 2 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 BB’s 5 K’s). He got his feet wet with four appearances at High-A Bakersfield, where he held the league to a .189 batting average, induced 2.38 grounders for every fly ball out recorded, and averaged better than a strikeout per inning.

He was then promoted to Frisco and after a couple of rough outings, he got on a roll. During a five game stretch spanning from mid-May until the first week of June, Wilson had one woeful outing, but in the other four, he tossed a combined 14.2 innings, allowing just two earned runs on 11 hits and four walks, fanning 17. And on the strength of that short stretch in Double-A, Wilson was suddenly called upon to pitch for the big club, skipping Triple-A altogether.

Because of a couple of horrible early outings for the RoughRiders, his ERA at the time was above 6.00. But, as you can see, four of his last five appearances were dominant. Nonetheless, his callup was very premature and through six appearances with the Rangers, Wilson’s big league ERA topped 9.00. He was sent back to Frisco as the naysayers continued to snicker.

Back in Frisco, Wilson proved that he was undaunted by his initial big league struggles by toying with Texas League hitters, posting a 1.69 ERA while recording 13 whiffs and issuing just one walk in 16 innings. He returned to the big club amidst another round of harsh criticism from the local media and another round of “he couldn’t even get Double-A hitters out.”

Well, OK: his overall 0-4 record and 4.43 ERA for the RoughRiders wasn’t much to write home about, but eight of his last nine Double-A appearances were dominant and ultimately, Wilson fanned 44 in 43 innings at Frisco (an excellent 9.20 whiffs per nine innings). He walked just 14 and posted an outstanding G/F ratio of 1.85. Back with the big club down the stretch, Wilson was outstanding out of the bullpen where he posted a 2.73 ERA and held big league hitters to a .191 batting average.

The Lesson: Not just any kid could survive the challenges that were thrown at Wilson last season and the fact that they made him stronger and better instead of destroying him says a lot. And the Rangers knew that Wilson, who does not lack for self-confidence, was one of those rare kids who could survive what was almost certain to be a massive beating at the hands of big league hitters. But in spite of the enormous challenges thrown at him, Wilson thrived. This year, it will all come together for him.

2) Mike Nickeas: “The Three-Level Jump”

The excellently named Michael James Nickeas was taken in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, bringing quite a resume into the Rangers organization: two-time member of the Johnny Bench Award watch list (best college catcher); member of both the junior and collegiate national teams. He had an excellent professional debut, hitting .288 / .384 / .494 with ten homers for short-season Spokane in 2004.

The Core Numbers: The 2005 season was nothing short of a nightmare for Nickeas at the plate, as the Georgia Tech alum hit .202 / .263 / .302 for the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders.

The Misunderstanding: He was overmatched and his long swing was exposed by advanced pitching in the Texas League.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: Like Wilson, Mike Nickeas was put in an almost impossible situation last year when, less than a year after playing his last collegiate game, he was asked to make a three-level jump to Double-A Frisco to start the season. To make matters worse, Nickeas is a slow starter. He suffered through 1-21 start to his final collegiate season and a 3-29 overall month of February. He recovered to hit .305 over final 197 at-bats of the campaign., but his stock slipped a bit nonetheless and the Rangers were thrilled to get him in the fifth round.

Last year after another slow start (to be expected after a triple-level jump in class) he appeared to be on the verge of a breakout at the end of May, hitting safely in 10 of twelve games when he broke his right thumb and missed two months of play. Returning from the injury, he was just rounding back into form as the season came to an end. He went on a .360 tear over the season’s final ten games before going on to slaughter Arizona Fall League pitching with a .425 / .468 / .675 performance against some of baseball’s best pitching prospects. If his swing really was too long to keep up with advanced pitching, it surely would have been exposed in the AFL.

The Lesson: It is often said that the biggest jump on the climb through the minor leagues is the jump from High-A to Double-A. Nickeas made that jump, times three. That he struggled a bit comes as no surprise. An excellent all-around defensive catcher and field general with outstanding makeup, is a much, much different player than his .202 / .263 / .302 final line in 2005 would suggest. He will have a second look at Texas League pitchers and, hopefully, no interruptions this time when he finds a groove with the bat. He’ll be a Texas League all star…if he stays in the league that long.

3) Johnny Lujan: “The Epiphany”

Coming out of New Mexico Junior College in 2004, Lujan was among the national JUCO leaders with a sub-1.00 ERA before his final outing and finished 11-2, 1.61 with 103 strikeouts in 78 innings. There was a consistent theme in all of the reports on Lujan coming out of NMJC as the Rangers picked him in the 15th round: talented, but very unrefined. The MLB scouting report on Lujan called him “very raw; just a thrower now.” Baseball America noted that he had “so-so command.”

The Core Numbers: 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA for Low-A Clinton; fanning 56 and walking 27 in 64.;1 innings.

The Misunderstanding: Big deal. A nice season, but nothing special there.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: Lujan’s 2005 season at Low-A Clinton was good but far from dominant…until August rolled around. The Waco native went on a dominant run down the stretch, posting a 0.44 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 20 innings while holding the Midwest League to a .143 average during the final full month of the season. Over the winter, Lujan virtually erased any notion that his huge August was just a fluke. He went off to the Puerto Rico Winter League where he exploded, tossing 20 scoreless innings while holding the league to a miserable .131 average.

That’s right: 20 innings, no runs. None. And his fastball sat at 97 mph.

When guys like Lujan–with big raw arms but not much of an idea of what to do with them–start to figure it all out, they can explode. We saw it two years ago with Frankie Francisco who, in spite of a 98 mph fastball and wicked exploding slider, posted a 6.34 ERA in 72.1 Double-A innings before suddenly figuring it all out and putting together a 3.33 ERA in 55 big league innings, playing a key roll in the Rangers surprising 2004 campaign.

There’s never really been any doubt about Lujan’s essential talent. The question about Lujan was, and is, whether he can harness his excellent stuff and learn to control the strike zone. As Lujan continues to refine his approach and improve his control, his extraordinary stuff and deceptive delivery should allow him to go all the way and perhaps, just perhaps, become a significant member of the Texas Rangers staff.

The Lesson: When the moment of clarity comes to an extremely talented but raw prospect, his ascent can be breathtaking and it appears that the breakthrough has happened for the Waco Kid. John Lombardo, the Rangers director of minor league operations credits Lujan for “[working] very hard, refining his craft under the guidance of Rick Adair and the rest of our development staff and we are certainly starting to see the fruits of this labor. This should only continue through 2006. A lot of credit needs to go to our Scouting staff for recognizing this raw ability and what could be made of it."

4) Vincent Sinisi: “The Brutal Injury”

A rare draft-eligible sophomore from the national championship Rice University team, the Houston native was in a unique situation entering the 2003 draft and his agent, Scott Boras, manipulated it brilliantly to land Sinisi a contract equivalent to what the top ten overall picks in the draft were getting in spite of the fact that his client didn’t come off the board until the Rangers picked him in the second round. His career as a pro has been uneven and marred by injuries but with flashes of brilliance.

The Core Numbers: Sinisi hit .258 / .300 / .343 in 258 at-bats for Double-A Frisco after hitting .363 / .438 / .600 in 35 games with High-A Bakersfield.

The Misunderstanding: His ordinary tools were exposed in Double-A.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: It’s probably a miracle that Sinisi played at all in 2005. Midway through his strong 2004 campaign in the High-A California League, Sinisi fractured his arm in a collision with Joaquin Arias. The fracture was severe enough to require the intallment of a plate to stabilize the break while healing and Sinisi developed a staph infection that nearly killed him. Seven surgeries later, he was finally ready to resume swinging a bat. He missed spring camp, stayed behind in extended sprint training and was rushed off to the Cal League where he destroyed the league’s pitchers. But in Frisco, it was another story.

He got off to an incredibly hot start, hitting .478 through his first week, but then quickly cooled off dramatically, hitting just .178 in July as he lost what little physical strength he had built up after a nearly fatal offseason.

The key to understanding Sinisi, for me, was what he did in August. Anyone who saw Sinisi limp home through the season’s final month would agree that he just didn’t have anything left in the tank, but he quietly hit right at .300, though his bat speed clearly wasn’t what it can be. It’s a testament to his pride, guts and skill that he was able to play at all, much less hit .300 over the final month of the season.

The Lesson: It wasn’t a matter of lacking the talent to compete in the Texas League. Sinisi is in all likelihood the purest hitter in the Rangers system. He comes into the 2006 season healthy and with a full head of steam, having been in camp with Italy’s World Baseball Classic club (for whom he hit two homers in three games, including one exhibition against the Detroit Tigers). Sinisi is the hitter you saw in Bakersfield, not the one you saw in Frisco. He should crush Texas League pitching for a month or two this year before forcing his way up to Oklahoma.

5) Michael Schlact: “The Student”

The Rangers went for this tall, thin right handed prep pitcher in the third round of the 2004 draft hoping to capitalize on what scouts call his “projectability.” The Rangers drafted Schlact more for what they thought he could become than for what he was at the time.

The Core Numbers: 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA at low A Clinton (90 K’s & 37 BB’s in 168.1 IP).

The Misunderstanding: An ordinary prospect. Not really dominant numbers.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: If you are going to take a high school pitcher because he is "projectable" then this is pretty much what you want to see after his first full season of professional baseball:

APRIL: 4.22 ERA MAY: 5.50 ERA JUNE: 4.30 ERA JULY: 3.57 ERA AUGUST: 2.79 ERA

In fact, the deeper you go into his numbers, the more evident it becomes that Schlact’s August was even more dominant than the ERA would seem to suggest. He also cut about thirty five points off of his opponent’s batting average in August while improving his K / BB ratio. Moreover, he actually added velocity to his fastball by the end of the year, hitting 93 and sitting at 90-91 after sitting in the high 80′s earlier in the season. He was, in every way, a dramatically better pitcher in August than he was in May, or June.

From May through the end of the season, the young man improved significantly every month. And at a time when he was entering into uncharted waters–eclipsing 140, 150 and then 160 innings of work–and when you might expect a lot of young pitchers to begin to wear down under the workload, Schlact got a lot better.

I believe that when you see a kid, especially one young fairly for his league like Schlact–at 19–was in the Midwest League, improve like that throughout the season, what you can deduct is that he is smart. He studies and learns and over time. The ability to learn and adjust and stay one step ahead of your competition is a skill and it’s one that every prospect will need sooner or later. No matter how many gifts he possesses, and no matter how many tools are in his box, every prospect is going to reach the point at which he cannot succeed on his innate talent alone. At some point, they all have to prove that they know how to make adjustments to keep up. A proven ability to do that matters. It was a key pattern for Kameron Loe who, for three straight years in the minors, improved each and every month at four different levels of competition. And it appears that it is a skill that Schlact possesses.

It’s true that Schlact’s strikeout numbers are lower than you normally see in elite prospects (4.81 K’s per 9 innings), but realize that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, which is something the Rangers covet and cultivate, and that extreme ground ball pitchers are rarely big strikeout guys.

Only seven qualifying big league pitchers bettered Schlact’s grounder-to-fly ratio of 2.05 last year and most of them posted K/9 ratios similar to Schlact’s 4.81. Mark Mulder had a G / F of 2.74 and a K / 9 of 4.87. Jake Westbrook was 3.13 / 5.08; Tim Hudson was 2.50 / 5.39. Derek Lowe was 2.92 / 5.92. Thus, I’m not as concerned about Schlact’s low strikeout ratios as I might be about many other prospects.

The Lesson: Consistent improvement is a “skill” and one every prospect will need. Kids who prove that they can do it often continue to do it at every level. While Schlact’s 4.17 ERA for the 2005 season was solid, it misrepresents the pitcher he was by the end of the year. Rangers director of minor league operations John Lombardo tells us that the club sees big things in Schlact’s future: “Michael Schlact seems to be flying under the radar somewhat, but he has a tremendous background and feel for the game and, like many High School players heading into their 2nd full season, has further matured both mentally and physically this off-season. With his determination and ability, he should be poised for a very strong 2006.”

I’ll be back next week with some thoughts on what we’ve seen and heard after a week in minor league camp.

Mike Hindman is a contributor to texasrangers.com.

When the Rangers minor league camp opens this week, more than 130 players will be in attendance. Odds are that fewer than 10 will have a substantial big league career. The Rangers have asked me to bring you coverage of the progress of those 130 as they sort themselves out on the long, difficult road to the big leagues as we’ve done for eight years at newbergreport.com.

In this space over the course of the season, I’m probably going to write about more than half of those 130 kids, hoping to find the five, or six or–if all goes impossibly well—ten who will someday contribute meaningfully to the Texas Rangers.

Since 1998, the Newberg Report has chronicled the news from the Rangers minor league system on a daily basis, covering literally every single game played by the club’s six farm clubs. We were on the story as Mark Teixeira shot through the system. We were covering Hank Blalock and Kevin Mench literally from the moment they were drafted in back-to-back rounds back in June of 1999 and we’ll be doing it again this year with daily reports at newbergreport.com and in-depth weekly updates at this location.

In most instances, that group of about ten kids in minor league camp who will someday go on to enjoy substantial major league careers will be like Teixeira, Blalock and Mench: early round draft choices. The current generation of “bonus babies” includes young men like John Danks, Thomas Diamond, John Mayberry, Jr., Johnny Whittleman and Taylor Teagarden. Some if not all of them will enjoy long careers in Arlington and you can track their progress in depth on a weekly basis right here. But you can probably read about kids like that in a dozen different places.

There are no sure things in life or in baseball. As often as not, those kids taken in the first few rounds never make it to the show and once a kid signs a pro contract and heads off to minor league camp, he enters into a meritocracy in which a tenth rounder or a twentieth rounder or even an undrafted kid will get his shot before the bonus baby if he outplays him. And that is where we come in. Finding those diamonds in the rough is our passion and those who have kept up with us over the years have followed some amazing stories. For example:

In the middle of the 1999 season, the Rangers traded Esteban Loaiza to Toronto for a kid who was thought to be the Blue Jays fourth or fifth best middle-infield prospect at the time. After just 43 games in the Rangers system at Double-A Tulsa, we were telling anyone who would listen that Michael Young was going to be a big key to the Rangers future. On opening day of the 2003 minor league season, the Rangers lowest-level full-season ballclub, the class-A Clinton Lumberkings of the Midwest League, kicked off the year with an eight man pitching rotation (four pairs would essentially split starting and long-relief duties every four days). The eight included Dustin Scheffel and David Mead, Nick Masset and Erik Thompson, Cesar Herrera and Nick Devenney, and finally, Rob Corrado and Kameron Loe.

At the time, none had distinguished himself and other than perhaps Masset (an eighth rounder in 2000), there wasn’t a known “prospect” in the group. Within three weeks, we wrote this:

Kameron Loe is simply too much for Midwest League hitters to handle. The Clinton starter saw his ERA fall to 1.80 as he held West Michigan to one earned run on three hits and a walk, striking out four, through the final four innings.

Loe, a lowly 20th rounder in the 2002 draft, had delivered a relatively pedestrian performance in his professional debut season of 2002, going 4-4 with a 4.47 ERA for Pulaski in the advance rookie Appalachian League and he entered the 2003 season as nothing more than just another guy with a long, long shot of someday–maybe–seeing Double-A. Within three weeks, it was obvious that he was on his way to seeing much, much more. And next month, Loe will open the season as a major league starting pitcher.

In February, 2004, we prepared capsules of 65 Rangers minor leaguers and wrote this of an anonymous shortstop selected in the 17th round of the 2003 draft:

[Ian] Kinsler sounds a lot like a Michael Young starter kit. He…who goes about 6’1", 180 lbs., is by all accounts a tremendous glove man with a strong arm and good speed. He hit relatively well at Spokane (.277 / .352 / .410) but it is his defense that continues to outpace what he does with the bat.

In late March, we went to spring training, watched Kinsler at work, and wrote this:

I’d mentioned this in the Prospect Previews, but yesterday I had it confirmed by one of his teammates: Ian Kinsler is a Michael Young starter kit. Keep your eye on him.

In early May, with about 25 games at class-A Clinton under Kinsler’s belt, we wrote this:

Shortstop Ian Kinsler once again filled up the box score with an array of numbers. He went 3-4, knocked out his 17th double (which leads all of baseball–including the major leagues), and he added his seventh stolen base, which is fourth best in the Midwest League. Aside from wielding a quality glove, Kinsler leads the Midwest League in batting average (.379), hits (36) and doubles. He is third in RBIs (18) and slugging percentage (.589), and seventh in OBP (.434).

And in mid-June, we had this to say:

Just when you think that the Ian Kinsler free-for-all has reached its apex, he goes out and does something like this: 2-3 with a walk; 11th jack; 30th double; and two RBIs, giving him 52 on the year.

The next day, Kinsler was at Double-A Frisco and today, he’s on the verge of earning a job as a major league second baseman.

Last spring, we went to Surprise and heard a loud buzz all over the minor league camp about a young pitcher from the Dominican Republic who was coming off of a season in which he’d been good but undistinguished at two levels of Class-A baseball. But the buzz was so strong, that before the season even started, we wrote this about Edison Volquez:

the mere mention of his name brings smiles–both the ‘knowing’ kind and one’s of joy–to the faces of his teammates…. I’m projecting him to skyrocket into national consciousness this summer. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is universally regarded as the top pitching prospect in the entire system at the end of the season.

Yeah. We’ve missed on a few of them as well and we’ll be the first to admit that we’ve declared a kid a genuine future star only to see him fizzle out in short order, and this year we will no doubt get too excited about someone who, ultimately, won’t make it all the way, but in the end, you can be relatively sure that if some young man’s dream is starting to come true in the Rangers farm system, we’ll talk about it right here.

This year, one or two young men will have that epiphany where everything becomes clear and relatively simple like Kam Loe had in 2003 and Ian Kinsler had in 2004. Like Edison Volquez last year, those young men will find themselves suddenly and unexpectedly emerging from obscurity to take their places alongside the Rangers more heralded prospects like Diamond and Danks. This, we hope, is the place you’ll come, week after week, to watch it happen.

We’ll be back next week with a preview of some of the young men we think have a good shot at emerging from the crowd to establish themselves as legitimate prospects in the Texas Rangers system.

Mike Hindman is a contributor to texasrangers.com.