Rangers Farm Report -- March 14 -- Mike Hindman

In my first entry here, I talked about finding kids who are on the verge of breaking out of anonymity and into the upper echelon of prospects. There are three principal ways to find these diamonds in the rough: (1) study the stats closely; (2) talk to other players, scouts and folks in the organization to see who they really like; and finally (3) see for yourself. When I weigh in with next week’s report, I’ll have the benefit of having seen virtually every single one of the more than 130 kids in minor league camp and I’ll talk to plenty of folks who will have insights into who is starting to blossom. For now, however, what I’d like to do is talk about how we go about identifying potential breakout candidates from a close study of statistics alone and show you five guys whose core numbers–whether just downright horrible or generally average–are, in my opinion, misleading. In no particular order, we’ll talk about C.J. Wilson (“The Rush Job”); Mike Nickeas (“The Three Level Jump”); Johnny Lujan (“The Epiphany”); Vincent Sinisi (“The Brutal Injury”) and Michael Schlact (“The Student”). Each of these five players is, I believe, a substantially better player today than his overall core stats from 2005 would suggest. I’ll do my best to explain why I think that is the case in each of these very different cases:

1) C.J. Wilson: “The Rush Job"

Lost in all of the talk about the DVD boys is a guy who you saw getting his head handed to him in Arlington last summer, but who belongs in any discussion of the best young arms in the system. I think that C.J. Wilson is going to help the Rangers this year. And the year after that. And for years to come.

The Core Numbers: Wilson went 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA in four appearances at High-A Bakersfield. Nice, but he was among the oldest pitcher in the league. He went 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA at Double-A Frisco and 1-7 with a 6.94 ERA for the Rangers.

The Misunderstanding: On both occasions when Wilson was called up to join the Rangers last summer, the club suffered a massive beating from the local media who, to paraphrase, ridiculed club officials for calling up a guy who “couldn’t get Double-A hitters out and wasn’t even that great in Bakersfield.”

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: For one thing, Wilson was returning to action after missing a year and a half rehabilitating an elbow reconstructed in a Tommy John surgery. Seeing his first action since the long layoff, Wilson was wicked in spring training against big leaguers (4 IP, 2 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 BB's 5 K's). He got his feet wet with four appearances at High-A Bakersfield, where he held the league to a .189 batting average, induced 2.38 grounders for every fly ball out recorded, and averaged better than a strikeout per inning.

He was then promoted to Frisco and after a couple of rough outings, he got on a roll. During a five game stretch spanning from mid-May until the first week of June, Wilson had one woeful outing, but in the other four, he tossed a combined 14.2 innings, allowing just two earned runs on 11 hits and four walks, fanning 17. And on the strength of that short stretch in Double-A, Wilson was suddenly called upon to pitch for the big club, skipping Triple-A altogether.

Because of a couple of horrible early outings for the RoughRiders, his ERA at the time was above 6.00. But, as you can see, four of his last five appearances were dominant. Nonetheless, his callup was very premature and through six appearances with the Rangers, Wilson’s big league ERA topped 9.00. He was sent back to Frisco as the naysayers continued to snicker.

Back in Frisco, Wilson proved that he was undaunted by his initial big league struggles by toying with Texas League hitters, posting a 1.69 ERA while recording 13 whiffs and issuing just one walk in 16 innings. He returned to the big club amidst another round of harsh criticism from the local media and another round of “he couldn’t even get Double-A hitters out.”

Well, OK: his overall 0-4 record and 4.43 ERA for the RoughRiders wasn’t much to write home about, but eight of his last nine Double-A appearances were dominant and ultimately, Wilson fanned 44 in 43 innings at Frisco (an excellent 9.20 whiffs per nine innings). He walked just 14 and posted an outstanding G/F ratio of 1.85. Back with the big club down the stretch, Wilson was outstanding out of the bullpen where he posted a 2.73 ERA and held big league hitters to a .191 batting average.

The Lesson: Not just any kid could survive the challenges that were thrown at Wilson last season and the fact that they made him stronger and better instead of destroying him says a lot. And the Rangers knew that Wilson, who does not lack for self-confidence, was one of those rare kids who could survive what was almost certain to be a massive beating at the hands of big league hitters. But in spite of the enormous challenges thrown at him, Wilson thrived. This year, it will all come together for him.

2) Mike Nickeas: “The Three-Level Jump”

The excellently named Michael James Nickeas was taken in the fifth round of the 2004 draft, bringing quite a resume into the Rangers organization: two-time member of the Johnny Bench Award watch list (best college catcher); member of both the junior and collegiate national teams. He had an excellent professional debut, hitting .288 / .384 / .494 with ten homers for short-season Spokane in 2004.

The Core Numbers: The 2005 season was nothing short of a nightmare for Nickeas at the plate, as the Georgia Tech alum hit .202 / .263 / .302 for the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders.

The Misunderstanding: He was overmatched and his long swing was exposed by advanced pitching in the Texas League.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: Like Wilson, Mike Nickeas was put in an almost impossible situation last year when, less than a year after playing his last collegiate game, he was asked to make a three-level jump to Double-A Frisco to start the season. To make matters worse, Nickeas is a slow starter. He suffered through 1-21 start to his final collegiate season and a 3-29 overall month of February. He recovered to hit .305 over final 197 at-bats of the campaign., but his stock slipped a bit nonetheless and the Rangers were thrilled to get him in the fifth round.

Last year after another slow start (to be expected after a triple-level jump in class) he appeared to be on the verge of a breakout at the end of May, hitting safely in 10 of twelve games when he broke his right thumb and missed two months of play. Returning from the injury, he was just rounding back into form as the season came to an end. He went on a .360 tear over the season’s final ten games before going on to slaughter Arizona Fall League pitching with a .425 / .468 / .675 performance against some of baseball’s best pitching prospects. If his swing really was too long to keep up with advanced pitching, it surely would have been exposed in the AFL.

The Lesson: It is often said that the biggest jump on the climb through the minor leagues is the jump from High-A to Double-A. Nickeas made that jump, times three. That he struggled a bit comes as no surprise. An excellent all-around defensive catcher and field general with outstanding makeup, is a much, much different player than his .202 / .263 / .302 final line in 2005 would suggest. He will have a second look at Texas League pitchers and, hopefully, no interruptions this time when he finds a groove with the bat. He’ll be a Texas League all star...if he stays in the league that long.

3) Johnny Lujan: “The Epiphany”

Coming out of New Mexico Junior College in 2004, Lujan was among the national JUCO leaders with a sub-1.00 ERA before his final outing and finished 11-2, 1.61 with 103 strikeouts in 78 innings. There was a consistent theme in all of the reports on Lujan coming out of NMJC as the Rangers picked him in the 15th round: talented, but very unrefined. The MLB scouting report on Lujan called him “very raw; just a thrower now.” Baseball America noted that he had “so-so command.”

The Core Numbers: 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA for Low-A Clinton; fanning 56 and walking 27 in 64.;1 innings.

The Misunderstanding: Big deal. A nice season, but nothing special there.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: Lujan’s 2005 season at Low-A Clinton was good but far from dominant...until August rolled around. The Waco native went on a dominant run down the stretch, posting a 0.44 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 20 innings while holding the Midwest League to a .143 average during the final full month of the season. Over the winter, Lujan virtually erased any notion that his huge August was just a fluke. He went off to the Puerto Rico Winter League where he exploded, tossing 20 scoreless innings while holding the league to a miserable .131 average.

That’s right: 20 innings, no runs. None. And his fastball sat at 97 mph.

When guys like Lujan–with big raw arms but not much of an idea of what to do with them–start to figure it all out, they can explode. We saw it two years ago with Frankie Francisco who, in spite of a 98 mph fastball and wicked exploding slider, posted a 6.34 ERA in 72.1 Double-A innings before suddenly figuring it all out and putting together a 3.33 ERA in 55 big league innings, playing a key roll in the Rangers surprising 2004 campaign.

There’s never really been any doubt about Lujan’s essential talent. The question about Lujan was, and is, whether he can harness his excellent stuff and learn to control the strike zone. As Lujan continues to refine his approach and improve his control, his extraordinary stuff and deceptive delivery should allow him to go all the way and perhaps, just perhaps, become a significant member of the Texas Rangers staff.

The Lesson: When the moment of clarity comes to an extremely talented but raw prospect, his ascent can be breathtaking and it appears that the breakthrough has happened for the Waco Kid. John Lombardo, the Rangers director of minor league operations credits Lujan for “[working] very hard, refining his craft under the guidance of Rick Adair and the rest of our development staff and we are certainly starting to see the fruits of this labor. This should only continue through 2006. A lot of credit needs to go to our Scouting staff for recognizing this raw ability and what could be made of it."

4) Vincent Sinisi: “The Brutal Injury”

A rare draft-eligible sophomore from the national championship Rice University team, the Houston native was in a unique situation entering the 2003 draft and his agent, Scott Boras, manipulated it brilliantly to land Sinisi a contract equivalent to what the top ten overall picks in the draft were getting in spite of the fact that his client didn’t come off the board until the Rangers picked him in the second round. His career as a pro has been uneven and marred by injuries but with flashes of brilliance.

The Core Numbers: Sinisi hit .258 / .300 / .343 in 258 at-bats for Double-A Frisco after hitting .363 / .438 / .600 in 35 games with High-A Bakersfield.

The Misunderstanding: His ordinary tools were exposed in Double-A.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: It’s probably a miracle that Sinisi played at all in 2005. Midway through his strong 2004 campaign in the High-A California League, Sinisi fractured his arm in a collision with Joaquin Arias. The fracture was severe enough to require the intallment of a plate to stabilize the break while healing and Sinisi developed a staph infection that nearly killed him. Seven surgeries later, he was finally ready to resume swinging a bat. He missed spring camp, stayed behind in extended sprint training and was rushed off to the Cal League where he destroyed the league’s pitchers. But in Frisco, it was another story.

He got off to an incredibly hot start, hitting .478 through his first week, but then quickly cooled off dramatically, hitting just .178 in July as he lost what little physical strength he had built up after a nearly fatal offseason.

The key to understanding Sinisi, for me, was what he did in August. Anyone who saw Sinisi limp home through the season’s final month would agree that he just didn’t have anything left in the tank, but he quietly hit right at .300, though his bat speed clearly wasn’t what it can be. It’s a testament to his pride, guts and skill that he was able to play at all, much less hit .300 over the final month of the season.

The Lesson: It wasn’t a matter of lacking the talent to compete in the Texas League. Sinisi is in all likelihood the purest hitter in the Rangers system. He comes into the 2006 season healthy and with a full head of steam, having been in camp with Italy’s World Baseball Classic club (for whom he hit two homers in three games, including one exhibition against the Detroit Tigers). Sinisi is the hitter you saw in Bakersfield, not the one you saw in Frisco. He should crush Texas League pitching for a month or two this year before forcing his way up to Oklahoma.

5) Michael Schlact: “The Student”

The Rangers went for this tall, thin right handed prep pitcher in the third round of the 2004 draft hoping to capitalize on what scouts call his “projectability.” The Rangers drafted Schlact more for what they thought he could become than for what he was at the time.

The Core Numbers: 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA at low A Clinton (90 K’s & 37 BB’s in 168.1 IP).

The Misunderstanding: An ordinary prospect. Not really dominant numbers.

The Story Behind the Core Numbers: If you are going to take a high school pitcher because he is "projectable" then this is pretty much what you want to see after his first full season of professional baseball:

APRIL: 4.22 ERA MAY: 5.50 ERA JUNE: 4.30 ERA JULY: 3.57 ERA AUGUST: 2.79 ERA

In fact, the deeper you go into his numbers, the more evident it becomes that Schlact’s August was even more dominant than the ERA would seem to suggest. He also cut about thirty five points off of his opponent’s batting average in August while improving his K / BB ratio. Moreover, he actually added velocity to his fastball by the end of the year, hitting 93 and sitting at 90-91 after sitting in the high 80's earlier in the season. He was, in every way, a dramatically better pitcher in August than he was in May, or June.

From May through the end of the season, the young man improved significantly every month. And at a time when he was entering into uncharted waters–eclipsing 140, 150 and then 160 innings of work–and when you might expect a lot of young pitchers to begin to wear down under the workload, Schlact got a lot better.

I believe that when you see a kid, especially one young fairly for his league like Schlact–at 19–was in the Midwest League, improve like that throughout the season, what you can deduct is that he is smart. He studies and learns and over time. The ability to learn and adjust and stay one step ahead of your competition is a skill and it’s one that every prospect will need sooner or later. No matter how many gifts he possesses, and no matter how many tools are in his box, every prospect is going to reach the point at which he cannot succeed on his innate talent alone. At some point, they all have to prove that they know how to make adjustments to keep up. A proven ability to do that matters. It was a key pattern for Kameron Loe who, for three straight years in the minors, improved each and every month at four different levels of competition. And it appears that it is a skill that Schlact possesses.

It’s true that Schlact’s strikeout numbers are lower than you normally see in elite prospects (4.81 K’s per 9 innings), but realize that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher, which is something the Rangers covet and cultivate, and that extreme ground ball pitchers are rarely big strikeout guys.

Only seven qualifying big league pitchers bettered Schlact’s grounder-to-fly ratio of 2.05 last year and most of them posted K/9 ratios similar to Schlact’s 4.81. Mark Mulder had a G / F of 2.74 and a K / 9 of 4.87. Jake Westbrook was 3.13 / 5.08; Tim Hudson was 2.50 / 5.39. Derek Lowe was 2.92 / 5.92. Thus, I’m not as concerned about Schlact’s low strikeout ratios as I might be about many other prospects.

The Lesson: Consistent improvement is a “skill” and one every prospect will need. Kids who prove that they can do it often continue to do it at every level. While Schlact’s 4.17 ERA for the 2005 season was solid, it misrepresents the pitcher he was by the end of the year. Rangers director of minor league operations John Lombardo tells us that the club sees big things in Schlact’s future: “Michael Schlact seems to be flying under the radar somewhat, but he has a tremendous background and feel for the game and, like many High School players heading into their 2nd full season, has further matured both mentally and physically this off-season. With his determination and ability, he should be poised for a very strong 2006.”

I'll be back next week with some thoughts on what we've seen and heard after a week in minor league camp.

Mike Hindman is a contributor to texasrangers.com.