This is just silly.   The top three are all worthy of a number one rating and there are three or four more who would normally belong in the top five but didn't make the cut.

5)   Leonel de Los Santos -- 18 YO (RH)  (2006 International FA)

A small kid with a huge arm signed out of Yasasa, Venezuela, De Los Santos turned 18 more than a month after the 2007 season ended.   He spent the  bulk of the summer with the DSL club where he hit .263 / .333 / .395 in 114 at-bats, drawing eight walks while fanning 19 times.   He also fared well in a four-game cameo with the AZL club.   

While his performance at the plate in his first pro season gave the Rangers something to be encouraged about, it's all about what he does behind the plate with De Los Santos.   

He already has one of the best arms in the system and if the rest of his game can grow around it, the hose gives him a chance to become an elite defensive backstop in a few years.

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

4)  Manuel Elias Pina -- 20 YO (RH)  (2005 International FA)

So far, he can't hit enough to project as a big league regular, but everyone seems to agree that Pina's play behind the plate is as good as it gets for a kid his age.   

The Venezuelan gets extremely high marks in all aspects of the defensive game -- strong arm, good pop time,  blocks balls and the plate well, shows leadership, and has good game-calling skills, etc. -- but it's hard to find much to like about his  .228 / .278 / .285  2007 season except this:   he struck out just 28 times in 281 at-bats overall and in June, he hit .348 / .394 / .455.   

___________________________________________________________________

___________________________________________________________________

3)  Maxamiliano R. Ramirez --  23 YO (RH)  (2007 Trade Acquisition)

An unbelievable hitting machine, Ramirez -- acquired from Cleveland in the Kenny Lofton trade -- has been labeled a sub-par defensive catcher, but many observers agree that he's on the verge of becoming more than adequate behind the dish, and with the stick he brings to the table, adequate will be more than enough defense to make Ramirez an everyday player in the big leagues.

Ramirez projects as a .300 / .400 / .500 hitter.   You know how I can project those numbers?    Because he's always a .300 / .400 / .500 hitter.   

Always.

Signed by the Braves out of Venezuela in 2002, Ramirez  tore up the Dominican Summer League at age 18 in 2003.   He cruised comfortably through the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2004 and was the co-MVP in the advanced Rookie-level Appalachian League in 2005 when he hit .347 / .424 / .527 while making the switch to catcher from third base.

In 2006, Ramirez split the summer playing for two clubs in the low-A Sally League after the Braves traded him to Cleveland to acquire closer Bob Wickman.  He hit a combined .292 / .417 / .454  (at the same age in the same league back in 2001, Jason Botts hit .309 / .416 / .449 with extremely similar peripheral numbers).

Scouting reports from Ramirez's first two years behind the plate rated his defense as abysmal if not utterly hopeless, but this year, as he has raked over pitchers in the high-A Carolina League (more on that below), there are definite signs of progress according to one American League scout who told Baseball America's Chris Kline that:

“Ramirez is a guy you have to follow for a series or two to get a real feel for how much better he’s gotten back there, though he’s not a frontline catcher. He stands up when he throws, so there’s a delay in his transfer and his feet aren’t what I would call an asset.

“His arm strength and accuracy are both average, but his game-calling, his receiving have improved. He sets up pretty good and you can tell he’s working to study hitters. This league has been extremely beneficial for him; seeing the same guys in an eight-team league. It’s been huge for him."

Meanwhile, while his skills behind the plate seem to be improving this summer, his bat is more impressive than ever.  Ramirez, who goes about 5'11",  185 lbs., is third in the Carolina League with a .926 OPS while demonstrating an advanced hitting approach.   

According to the American League scout that BA's Chris Kline talked with about Ramirez:

“[Ramirez] smokes balls to right-center (as a righthanded hitter). I mean, he just wears out that gap. But there’s also big power to that side of the field, which is impressive. He hits to all fields, he’s not afraid to shorten up his stroke when he has to . . . he’s just the complete package as a hitter. He turns on inside fastballs like nobody’s business and handles offspeed pitches well. Great pitch recognition."

Here's the evidence that backs up that scout's assertion that Ramirez has "great pitch recognition."    He has posted an outstanding BB/K (walks-to-strikeouts) ratio of 0.84 this year which, coincidentally, matches the BB / K ratio posted by Cleveland's Victor Martinez this year (tops among all MLB catchers).    His BB / PA  (walks-per-plate appearance) ratio is a dazzling 1.68.  Only six major leaguers can top that figure this season:   Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, Pat Burrell, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher and Ryan Howard.   

Ramirez is tough to fool and makes pitchers throw the ball over the plate.   Hitters  with high BB/K and BB/PA ratios tend to have enormous pitches-per-plate appearance figures as well, so Ramirez fits neatly into the emerging organizational philosophy to work pitchers and drive up pitch counts.

As Jon Daniels told the media last July after trading for Ramirez, one of the organization's developmental strengths is developing catching skills:  Scott Servais, Damon Berryhill and Matt Walbeck are all former catchers with excellent teaching skills.    Texas, it would seem, is as good a place as any for Ramirez to develop the necessary skills to become a servicable backstop.

Scouts have compared Ramirez to the Indians' Victor Martinez and having studied the numbers, I have to say that the comp is certainly reasonable.    Like Martinez, Ramirez  is unlikely to become a gold glover behind the dish, but he's gotten better in his short tenure as a catcher and just a little more improvement over the next couple of years could certainly result in the Rangers wielding one of the better hitting catchers in the American League.

Catch a glimpse of Max here:  http://video.aol.com/video-detail/max-ramirez-of-the-bakersfield-blaze--single-a-texas-/48557873

__________________________________________________________

__________________________________________________________

2)  Taylor Teagarden --  24 YO (RH)  (2006 3rd Round)

A leader on the 2005 University of Texas National Championship ballclub, Teagarden fell to the third round due to signability issues (also known as "the Scott Boras factor") and the Rangers were all-too-happy to throw the necessary coin at the Carrollton, Texas native to bring him into the fold.   In spite of the fact that he missed the 2006 season due to Tommy John surgery, you can be sure that the Rangers regard this as an extremely shrewd investment.

Teagarden came into pro baseball with a scouting report that gave him the highest marks for his leadership and defense and question marks surrounding his bat.   He's since nearly silenced those who doubt his bat, but I'll point out some things in a minute that continue to concern me.

Teagarden could not have been better in Bakersfield this summer where he hit .315 / .448 / .606 in 292 at-bats, and while he didn't catch every day (the Rangers wanted to ease him back into duty as he continued to recover from elbow surgery), he proved to be as outstanding as ever when he did catch, throwig out 38 percent of base runners in Bakersfield and earning praise from Bakersfield manager Carlos Subero who said that Teagarden the most intelligent player he's ever managed.   

Assuming his arm proves to be 100% (he had a setback or two last summer), Teagarden will clearly enjoy a career as a premium defensive big league catcher.  The question remains whether he'll hit enough to make him an all-star.  He might, but i think he's going to be a low-average hitter with average to above average power in the big leagues.   

Tegarden strikes out a lot.  That, in and of itself, doesn't bother me much.  It didn't bother me much while watching his Bakersfield numbers this summer because he was also drawing walks (0.73 BB/K ratio in 292 at-bats), suggesting that he was going deep in counts on a regular basis.    But when he got to Frisco, where once again the core numbers were excellent (.294 / .357 / .529 in 102 at-bats), Teagarden's BB/K ratio dove sharply (0.26) and there were times when his long, hitchy swing was painfully obvious.

Look for Teagarden to open the 2008 season catching every day in Frisco and then move up to Oklahoma in mid-summer.   If Gerald Laird is traded at some point between now and August, Teagarden will finish the season in Arlington.

____________________________________________________________________

____________________________________________________________________

1)  Cristian Santana --  18 YO (RH)  (2005 International FA)

This is from a recent Baseball Prospectus chat with Kevin Goldstein:

Grizz (Seattle): 5 Stars for [Mariners power-hitting catching prospect] Jeff Clement? Is this a position scarcity rating? Even if he sticks at catcher, his defense projects as adequate at best.

Kevin Goldstein: Position scarcity certainly plays a role. Start counting off every catching prospect... who has a shot at developing into an average defender with 30+ home runs a year . . . that's why he's so valuable.

This is why, for me, Santana is a five-star prospect.   

He's a phenomenal athlete:  Some of the clubs pursuing him back when he was a 15 year old free-agent-to-be considered Santana a center field prospect.  He runs extremely well, has very quick feet and a plus arm. 

AZL scouts and managers agree:  according to Baseball America's scout / manager-based rankings, Santana was the clear-cut choice as the league's top catching prospect "with raw arm strength and receiving skills that project as above-average."

Yes, he's raw defensively, but having had the chance to see him play, I believe that he'll make himself the complete player he has the chance to become.  And (stop me if you heard this one before) he plays with his hair on fire.   You see a lot of passion and intensity in his game.  He clearly loves being a baseball player and he's a leader on the field.   

But mostly, he can really, really hit.

In Santana's first 96 at-bats as a professional (AZL), he hit .302 / .407 / .531 and then the Rangers bumped him up to the NWL to face off against mostly 2007 collegiate draftees, where he continued to rake (.320 / .346 / .520). 

While it was certainly a small sample (25 at-bats), the similarity between what he did in the AZL and the NWL gives rise to the notion that Santana's success at the plate has more to do with Santana than with who he's facing.   

Indeed, the Rangers feel that Santana has a remarkable ability to make quick adjustments at the plate and that, combined with his intelligence and passion for the game, lead me to have about as much confidence as one can have in an 18 year old kid maximizing his considerable potential.

5)   Johan Yan --  19 YO 3b  (RH)  (2005 International FA)

Yan began his professional career in the AZL at age 17 in 2006 and got off to a white hot start, hitting .309 through his first 17 games, but then the wheels came off and he finished the season hitting .218 in 39 games.   Nonetheless, the Rangers promoted him to Spokane to begin the 2007 season and he struggled terribly, hitting .156 and fanning in 46% of his at-bats.   Sent back to the AZL, he fared little better (.200 / .258 / .317).

He's not learning yet and is on the verge of turning into a bust.   But the 6'4",  190 lb. Yan ranks among the more gifted athletes in the system, is regarded as a hard worker who cares, and has the sort of tools that would allow him to ascend quickly if and when everything clicks.

Yan has a huge arm and my friend Jamey Newberg likes the idea of moving him to the mound if the hitting doesn't come around.

4)   Emmanuel Solis --  18 YO  3b  (RH)   (2006 International FA)

(Solis, aka Baby Meat Hook, with Carlos Pimentel, photo courtesy of Scott Lucas):

The big strong kid signed for more than half a million as a 16 year old in 2006 and made his debut with the DSL Rangers that summer, hitting .210 / .301 / .330 and moved on to the AZL in 2007 where he hit .205 / .264 / .269, but people remain high on him nonetheless.    Solis has a pull-happy approach that prevents him from staying square and makes him vulnerable to breaking balls.

Though it hasn't shown up in games yet, he projects to have plus power and he's regarded as a strong fielder.   

3)  Travis Metcalf --  25 YO  3b  (RH)   (2004  11th Round)

I remember the first time I saw Metcalf.   I was in Surprise,  March of 2005, standing with C.J. Wilson watching a game between the Rangers and Royals Double-A squads.  After a couple of innings, Wilson turns to me and says something along these lines: "I don't know who that guy at third is, but if he can hit at all, he's going to win a gold glove someday."

The guy at third was Metcalf, and this past summer those of you who don't make your way to the kiddie pool (i.e. minor league games) on a regular basis finally got to see for yourselves why scouts said he could have stepped onto a big league field and delivered plus defense at the hot corner from the day he was drafted.

Metcalf led the NWL in dingers the summer he was drafted, hitting .269 / .351 / .503 and then made the two-level jump to the Cal League in 2005 where he lit up that circuit, hitting .291 / .358 / .513 with 22 bombs and 94 RBIs.

It was all smooth sailing for the free-swinging the former Kansas Jayhawk.  But because his statistical profile suggested poor plate discipline some (including me) weren't sold on Metcalf's bat yet.   Prior to the 2006 season, I wrote:

  If those who question his offensive upside are right, the jump to Frisco will be very difficult. His ability to learn and adjust will certainly be tested this year.

And then just before opening day that year, I talked to Metcalf at Dr. Pepper Ballpark and asked him whether he thought he needed to change his approach against the much more advanced pitching he'd see in the Texas League.   His response?   "No.  I'm going to swing from the heels.  That's what got me here."   And at that point, I became very worried.

Just as I feared, Metcalf tanked badly in 2006, hitting .221 / .298 / .325 as Texas League pitchers used his over-aggressiveness against him.   Like many midwesterners, the Wamego, Kansas native is proud and stubborn, but not he's stupid.    Eventually, he changed.  But it took awhile.

After five miserable months, there were signs in August of 2006 that Metcalf was starting to rethink his hacking approach.   He drew 11 walks while fanning just 14 times that month after having walked half as often and striking out twice as frequently in each of the previous two months.     He also hit .257 / .354 / .357 that month.  Not great, but a lot better than the .165 / .221 / .183 he assembled in June or the .222 / .260 / .354 he posted in July.

Metcalf began the 2007 season with a .265 / .326 / .410 April and then exploded with a .299 / .374 / .575 May before finding himself in a Rangers uniform in mid-June.

His tremendous defense will always keep him in the hunt for a big league job, and it now appears that he's a good candidate to hit as well as Dean Palmer.    If he tears  it up at Oklahoma this year, I would not be surprised if we're looking at an infield that includes Metcalf at third base on opening day, 2009.

2)   Johnny Whittleman  --  21 YO   3b  (LH)   (2005 2nd Round)

After struggling through a woeful 2006 season for Clinton (.227 / .313 / .343), Whittleman returned to the MWL and lit it up in near-Kinsleresque fashion for two months (.343 / .447 / .586 in April and .343 / .437 / .657 in May).  Off-season lasik eye surgery was said to have  been the key to his dramatic turnaround.

But then, MWL pitchers started pitching around the league's hottest hitter.   In June, Whittleman remained true to himself in spite of a falling batting average and simply took the walks, putting up a .236 /  .369 / .449  / .819 while drawing 20 freebies.   By July, however, he caved in and went .154 / .264 / .179 posting a BB/K ratio of 0.34 (when he'd consistely posted BB/K ratios of 0.80 or better almost every month of his pro career, including a 1.00 in August of 2006 when he hit just barely over .200).

Nonetheless, the Rangers bumped him up to Bakersfield in August of 2007 and he more-or-less returned to form, drawing 23 walks in 29 games which allowed him to put up a .240 / .372 / .413 line.   

Whittleman's glaring weaknesses continue to be his lefty splits and his defense.   Most people aren't terribly worried about either at this point.

Whittleman is one of those guys who you can only fully appreciate if you watch him around the ballyard.   You see so much that you can't see on a stat sheet. 

The swing:  If you want to see a beautiful, fluid left-handed stroke, look no further than Whittleman who, though born right handed, instinctively turned himself around and stroked it southpaw from the time he was a toddler.   

The leadership:  When you watch Whittleman around the ballyard, you immediately note that he's a real leader and that his teammates are drawn to him.   He genuinely interested in the success of his teammates and he won't let a man go down without a fight.

The work ethic:   The kid plays hard.   Really really hard.   He loves being a baseball player.  He loves to think about the craftsmanship of the game.  He loves to talk about it.   He's a joy to watch, even when things aren't going his way.

I put Whittleman in that category of player who is a very strong bet to get everything there is out of his talent.   There's no doubt in my mind that this kid will do whatever he has to do to make himself the best player he can be.

I expect a big year in Bakersfield and look forward to seeing  him make his debut at the confluence of Highway 121 and the North Dallas Tollway in August.

1)   Christopher L. Davis -- 22 YO   3b  (LH)   (2006 5th Round)

Look to the left.  What you see is something that pitchers in the Cal League and Texas League saw all too often as the most powerful hitter in either of those leagues launches yet another tape-measure shot into the stratosphere.

Chris Davis is a bad man.

But I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't sold on Davis until August.   I was extremely skeptical, in fact.  I went so far as to tell a friend that Davis was almost certainly fools gold.   Yes, he had throttled Cal League pitchers to the tune of a .298 / .340 / .573 line;  yes, he jacked 24 offerings out of the yard in 99 games;  yes, he had a league-record 35-game hit streak; but, he also fanned 123 times and walked just 23 times in 386 at-bats.   

Having grown up a Dodgers fan, I'd seen this show before and remembered it all too well.   As I watched Davis put those numbers together in Bakersfield, one thought raced through my mind:  Billy Ashley .   

The numbers Davis put up in Bakersfield were eerily similar to those posted by the one-time overhyped Dodgers phenom who fanned 135 times and walked 25 times during his swim through Bakersfield in 1990 (and racked up 111K's against 16 BB's at Double-A San Antonio in 1992 and then 143 K's against 35 BB's at Albequerque in 1993).

I tried to rationalize Davis's apparent lack of discipline by telling myself that anyone as hot as he was sort of owed it to himself to whack away since there seemed to be about a 30% chance he'd drive something to or over a wall, but I received his arrival in Frisco with a healthy dose of reservation nonetheless.

What I saw, and what the numbers demonstrate, is that Davis immediately comprehended that he had to shrink his strike zone if he was going to compete against the superior pitching in the Texas League.   He made his adjustments so quickly, that he left the impression that he's the kind of kid who can do just about anything once he sets his mind to it.

As impossible as it seemed coming into the promotion, Davis improved over his Bakersfield performance in every single category.  He became more selective (0.48 BB/K ratio in Frisco  /  0.18 BB/K ratio in Bakersfield),  and he became more powerful (he homered more than twice as frequently in Frisco as he did in Bakersfield).

He ended his short but memorable reign of terror in the Texas League having hit .298 / .371 / .688  / 1.057.   

Davis is always going to rack up the K's, but so do Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn.   It's unlikely that Davis will ever walk quite as much as those two, but I can't rule it out.   He's proven to me that he has what it takes to make adjustments quickly and as fearful pitchers stay away from him more and more, let they find themselves rendered BP fodder, he may very well learn to wait them out.  If he learns to do so consistently, and gets himself into 2-0, 3-1 and 3-0 counts on a regular basis, he's capable of hitting 50 dingers as a Texas Ranger someday...relatively soon.

In spite of the fact that he is blessed with an absolute howitzer of an arm, Davis is not a plus defender, but he's making strides there as well.   As I wrote in August:

You know that Frisco third baseman Chris Davis is a powerful man, but his defense is dramatically underrated.    Davis made two nice plays last night that challenged both his glove and his arm.  Pitcher Michael Schlact told me that the big lefty's glove work was inconsistent through the first couple of months of the season but that he "worked his tail off every day.  I mean hard.  And he's gotten to the point where he's really strong.  He's made a lot of great plays behind me." Schlact is one of the more pronounced ground ball pitchers in the organization, and so good infield defense is certainly not something he takes lightly.

Davis may very well find himself on the other corner of the infield by the end of the 2008 season and it's even possible, given his cannon of an arm, that he'll end  up in right field.   I don't really care.   I just want that bat  in the Rangers' lineup for about 15 years.

5)   Joaquin Arias -- 23 YO  SS  (2004 Trade Acquisition)

12 / 16:   0.75  (Rookie)

26 / 44:   0.59  (Low-A)

31 / 53:   0.58  (High-A)

17 / 46:   0.37  (Double-A)

19 / 64:   0.30  (Triple-A)

Those are Joaquin Arias's BB/K ratios.  That stat is not always terribly important, but for Arias, what it tends to show is that he's not making any inroads in the area of closing the most glaring hole in his game, which is his selectivity as a hitter.   Arias doesn't even strike out a ton, so what you can deduce from this is that he almost never ever draws a walk.

I used to think that Arias's upside was Tony Fernandez.  Now I think it's Yuni Betancourt.  And I don't think there's much chance he'll realize his upside given what appears to be a lack of desire to play.

Arias is an extremely gifted defensive player with extraordinary range, a fabulous arm, the feet of Nureyev and quicker hands than Sugar Ray Leonard (or, for you kids out there, Floyd Mayweather).   He doesn't strike out a ton, but his BB / PA (walks per plate appearance ratio) is a woeful 0.036 (again, similar to Yuni Betancourt's 0.027) and like his BB/K ratio, it gets worse every year.

I've never spoken to Arias, but in watching him over the years -- whether in games or at spring training -- I've never gotten the impression that he's especially interested in playing.   He doesn't seem to enjoy being a ballplayer, and this may be extremely unfair, but his failure to make it back on the field last year after suffering a shoulder injury only reinforces that impression.

And just to make you feel worse, I'll remind you that when the Rangers made the trade with New York to unload that $252mm contract, they could have had Robinson Cano instead of this guy.

Arias seems to be perilously close to throwing it all away.   He has to get himself back on the field every day and when  he does, he has to become a more discriminating hitter.    He didn't turn 23 until September, so there's still time for him to turn it around and get a promising career back on track.

4)   Marcus Devon Lemon -- 19 YO SS (LH)   (2006 4th Round)

The problem with Lemon is that it's hard to foresee a real big upside.  His perceived value seems to be less in his physical gifts than in his intellect, character, leadership and advanced approach.

He doesn't have any power and doesn't figure to develop much, he's not very fast, his arm isn't especially strong, but the Rangers like what's going on between Lemon's ears so much that they jumped him up to low-A Clinton less than a  year after signing him out of a Florida high school and had to be pleased with the results.

Predictably, he struggled terribly early in the year (.203 / .288 / .254 in April) as one of the youngest players in the MWL (he didn't turn 19 until June), but he showed the ability to make adjustments and he caught up to the league  (.309 / .391 / .402 in June and .296 / .383 / .388 in July) before tailing off just a tad through the dog days of August (.243 / .345 / .379).

Lemon was woeful on the bases, stealing only  a dozen bags while being caught 14 times, but he profiles as a top-of the order bat nonetheless as he does an exceptional job of working counts and getting on base.   He hit .300 / .396 / .431 in 283 at-bats from the top of the order (and .222 / .295 / .278 in 126 at-bats from the bottom of the order).

Though many think his future is either at second base or as a utility man, look for Lemon to begin and end the 2008 season as Bakersfield's starting shortstop. 

3)   Jose Miguel Vallejo -- 21 YO 2b (Switch Hitter) (2004 International FA signee)

A real tough kid with a lot of charisma and a lot of heart.  I've only seen him play a few times in spring training, but every time I see him he leaves a very very positive impression.   

Not only do his exceptionally quick hands and feet stand out, but you can actually see the desire to play ball oozing out of this young man.   I once saw him insist on completing a BP session with blood oozing out of his mouth after a foul tip caught him in the chops. 

Vallejo's calling cards are exceptional defense and baserunning.   He succeeded on an impossible 47 out of 50 stolen base attempts in 2007.   Now three years into switch-hitting, he's getting better from his weaker left side, and his BB/K and BB/PA ratios keep getting better.    It's unlikely he'll ever have power, but if he can continue to nudge his OBP up towards .350 and draw walks,  his speed and excellent instincts on the bases will make him a serious offensive threat.

Vallejo turned 21 in September and will spend the summer as Bakersfield's second baseman.    He's a kid worth rooting for and the kind of player you'll enjoy watching play the game.  So if you live in the Bakersfield area, make sure you're among the two or three hundred faithful who make it out to Historic Sam Lynn Ballpark on a regular basis this summer.

2)   German Duran --  23 YO 2b  (RH)  (2005 5th Round)

Where to begin?   

I could talk about how Duran validates the Rangers scouting department (he was a reach pick in the 5th round who now looks like a second rounder or maybe better), or how he finished the year in the top three in each Texas League triple crown category. 

I could talk about how he went from NP (scouting parlance for non prospect) to the Futures Game in three months, or I could talk about the spectacle of the 5'9" Duran teeing it up against 6'4",  240 lb. behemoth Landon Powell in the finals of the Texas League Home Run Derby -- and beating him.

But what I want to talk about is how Duran gets better -- a lot better -- with each promotion because you just don't see that very often.

After being selected in the fifth round out of Weatherford (TX) College in 2005, Duran signed quickly for a way-below-slot $50,000 and went off to Spokane where he hit a very quiet .262 / .313 / .393.   Surprisingly (and now in hindsight, we can say tellingly), the Rangers had him skip Clinton and report to Bakersfield in 2006 and he responsed by hitting 284 / .331 / .446 in spite of making the two-level jump.

Then he stampeded squarely into the middle of the prospect radar in 2007 when he hit .300 / .352 / .525 for Frisco before validating that performance with a strong effort in the Arizona Fall League.

Duran is not a terribly selective hitter (though he did show improvement in the AFL).  Coincidentally, his BB/PA has always been similar to Michael Young's fairly standard big league .065 - .070 range and his BB/K of .44 matched Young's 2007 ratio.   Young, it should be noted, was somewhat better in both categories as a minor leaguer.   Should those ratios fall, he could become more like a Jose Lopez than the Robinson Cano I think he could become.   

Duran is powerfully built, though short, and has maybe the second quickest bat I've seen from a Frisco hitter (behind Ian Kinsler).   He crushes lefties (.338 / .394 / .648).   Though he was named the best defensive second baseman in the Texas League by Baseball America, he's not a great defender.  You don't notice him much, which is a good thing.

The Rangers are plotting to turn Duran into a supersub, having moved the college shortstop around the infield during his 18 games in the AFL.  There's talk of him getting some at-bats at first during spring training and he's been invited to big league camp.

Duran will probably play every day in OKC, getting starts all over the infield.   He'll see Arlington should injury strike Young or Kinsler.

1)   Elvis Augusto Andrus --  19 YO  SS  (RH)  (2007 Trade Acquisition)

I already know that I'm going to do everything I can to see as many RoughRiders games as possible this summer, and this guy is the reason.    I'm going to wallow in the splendor of Elvis as much as possible.

We get excited about what Michael Main did in the college-dominated Northwest League coming out of high school, right?   

Well, consider this:

Main -- who was among a very very small handful of kids who competed in the NWL without three years of college experience under his belt -- is three months younger than Andrus. 

Andrus not only held his own in the High-A Cal League (two levels higher than the NWL), but he excelled, hitting .300 / .369 / .373.   

Then he went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .353 / .411 / .471.

This kid is unbelievably special.

An extremely charismatic, bright and driven young man, Andrus is a natural leader who gets extremely high marks for his unwavering commitment to the game.   And for that reason, he's fun to watch.   

But it's even more fun to watch him wielding the leather. 

"I'm not sure if there's a better defensive shortstop in the minor leagues right now," the scout said. "He's got explosive first-step quickness to his right or left, incredibly soft hands—balls just somehow find their way into his glove,"  an American League scout told Baseball America's Chris Kline last summer.

In spite of his tremendous production in the Cal League and the AFL, some scouts remain skeptical of his bat.    Here's the big question:   some say the King's upside is Edgar Renteria while others say it's Hanley Ramirez.   

The same AL scout who told BA's Kline that he thought Andrus was the best shortstop in the minors noted that ""he's got a line-drive stroke, but his plate discipline isn't great. He'll swing at bad breaking balls early in the count, but can use the whole field and turn on that inside fastball every now and then. He's still really raw in a lot of phases of his game, but when you watch him make some of the plays he makes, you know he's special."

Another scout told BA early in the 2007 season:  "He does everything you could want. He's got great hands, arm strength, quickness, speed. The thing that impressed me the most was his hitting. Every veteran scout I've ever talked to says the most impressive thing a young player can do is to show the ability to use the whole field at a young age. He does that. He shows some semblence of an approach when he's up there, he had an idea of what he was trying to do. He was very impressive."

Age wise, Andrus is the equivalent of being a year out of high school and he's going to open the season at Double-A Frisco....  Get yo' popcorn.

It's a happy day in January when your kids start begging to go to the yard.

5)   Miguel A. Velazquez --  20 YO RF (RH)  (2006 --  17th Round)

A five-tool talent who was selected out of a Puerto Rico high school in the 17th round of the 2006 draft, Velazquez signed in March of 2007 and reported for duty with the AZL club where he hit .330 / .381 / .489 while manning right field for the little Rangers, but was sent home after being suspended for undisclosed reasons in late July (he has since been reinstated, but there are rumors that other "personal problems" have flared up in the past).      At 6'2",  205 lbs., he projects to have more power down the road.     Expect to find him in Clinton when camp breaks.

4)   Michael Main -- 18 YO CF  (Switch Hitter)  (2007 1st Round)

Right up until the draft last June, there was quite a lot of debate within the scouting community as to whether Main's future was brighter on the mound or in center field where he was considered one of the nation's best prep prospects. 

Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report noted that some teams considered him first round material if he had never thrown a pitch in his life:   "He's a 70 runner [on the 20-80 scale] with good bat speed, and has even shown an ability to make contact from both sides of the plate."   In a May 4, 2007 chat, BA's Jim Callis said of Main,  "for all his velocity on the mound, I hear better things about him as a five-tool outfielder."   At the East Coast Professional Showcase in the summer of 2006, Main was voted "Most Exciting Player."

Heavan forbid he damages his wing or otherwise fizzles out on the mound, but if so, the Rangers still have a five-tool center field prospect in the Steve Finley mode.

3)   Brandon Boggs --  24 YO CF  (Switch Hitter)  (2004 4th Round)

As many of you know,  promoting the many virtues of Brandon Boggs is my pet project.   In addition to being a fantastic athlete and an extremely skilled center fielder with plus speed, insincts and arm, Boggs has grown  tremendously as a hitter since turning pro.

Boggs, a 2004 fifth rounder out of Georgia Tech, is the rare player whose numbers have improved each time he is promoted.    After beginning his career with a .235 / .373 / .369 line in 149 at-bats with Spokane in the short-season Northwest League the summer after he was drafted, Boggs moved on to low-A Clinton in 2005 where he hit .246 / .353/ .437 before posting a .261 / .352 / .444 line at high-A Bakersfield in 2006.

Making what many have called the most difficult step on the minor league ladder, Boggs posted his best core numbers ever with double-A Frisco:   .266 / .385 / .508 / .893 (the Texas League's fourth best OPS).  His power was up and his average was up, but what really impressed me, and the thing that bodes especially well for his future, is that Boggs has become even more selective:   his always strong BB/K ratio is improved, and his always strong  BB/PA is improved.

Boggs had a tremendous walks-per-plate-appearance ratio (BB / PA) of .164  which is a figure that was surpassed by only six big leaguers in 2007:   Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, Pat Burrell, Todd Helton, Nick Swisher, and Ryan Howard.  His cumulative minor league career BB/PA is .139, which is surpassed by only 16 big leaguers.   His BB/K ratio of 0.70 is also a solid figure (similar to Alex Rodriguez, David DeJesus, J.D. Drew, Lance Berkman and Ichiro).   Putting the two figures (BB/PA & BB/K) together, the most similar big league hitters are Swisher and Berkman.

The switch-hitter absolutely murdered lefties (1.039 OPS), but he's also good enough and patient enough against righties (.247 / .375 / .448) that you don't have to pigeonhole him as a platoon guy.    Only seven big league center fielders (Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Aaron Rowand, B.J. Upton, Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro, and Carlos Beltran) have an overall OPS better than the .823 that Boggs posted from his weaker left side.

It's also noteworthy that Boggs continues to improve immensely against right-handed pitchers:   he hit .239 / .330 / .378 / .708 against them in Clinton back in 2005;    .240 / .329 / .380 / .709 against them with Bakersfield in 2006;   .236 / .337 / .472 / .810  with Bakersfield in 2007 and then, of course, had his best showing against righties with Frisco last summer.

I'm a big believer in guys who send out obvious signs that they are getting better with time, regardless of the competition.   Boggs is obviously one of those guys and, I suspect, it is in large part because his approach at the plate is so disciplined and advanced.   

Boggs was added to the 40-man roster this winter and has thus far survived all of the roster maneuvering.    He should open the season with Oklahoma and you'll see him in Arlington before we close the door on the 2008 season.

2)  Julio Borbon --  22 YO CF  (LH)   (2007 Supplemental 1st Round)

People who see Borbon invariably fall in love with him.  People who have not seen him and only study his numbers worry.  Those who see Borbon note the speed, the quickness, and the tremedous athletic body, but the reason that they seem to come away so impressed is because of what my friend Jamey Newberg will tell you is his "aura."   His leadership, confidence, intelligence (which is hereditary; his father holds a Ph.D. from Mississippi State) and charisma are what cause the eye-witnesses to forget his statistical shortcomings.

The best college outfielder in the 2007 draft according to just about everyone, Borbon's injury-plagued junior season at Tennessee (he fractured an ankle) was a disappointment and he plunged in draft rankings from a projected top-10 pick to the supplmental first round where the Rangers happily snapped him up and inked him to a major league deal.

Borbon runs exceedingly well (6.26 in the 60) and bunts well enough that he can and does use that weapon to get on base.   At a solid 6'1",  195 lb., he's not merely a whispy speedster and the Rangers think he'll have decent gap power with the ability to hit 12-15 dingers a year.

His arm isn't an asset and his strike zone judgment leaves a lot to be desired, but he's aware of the fact that he must become a more selective hitter as a professional than he was as an amateur (and of course, the first step is admitting you have a problem, so that's good news).

The Rangers figure to get to the point with Borbon in a hurry.  I expect him to open the season at Clinton and see Bakersfield before the end of the summer.

1)   Engel Manuel Beltre --  18 YO CF  (LH)  (2007 Trade Acquisition)

I was visiting with my friend Kevin Goldstein (of Baseball Prospectus fame) recently and told him that I had Beltre as not only my top outfield prospect in the Rangers system but my top prospect -- period -- in the entire system on the grounds that he's the first prospect to come through this system who,  if he were in a draft, would be on the short list to go number one overall since Mark Teixeira.   

While Kevin disagreed with me that Beltre was the top prospect in the system (he likes Neftali Feliz at the top), he agreed with my theory about Beltre who, if he had been born in the U.S. instead of the D.R., would be in the 2008 draft and an almost certain top-five selection, if not number one overall.

Goldstein says that many people believe that Beltre projects as a 30/30 guy.  "On a purely athletic level," he writes, "there's nothing he can't do....  Beltre's ceiling is higher than any other position player in the system, and it's not even close."   

Other than possibly Borbon, he's the fastest player in the system.  Other than maybe David Paisano, he's got the best arm in the system.  Though he has his moments (he is just 17 after all), his breaks, reads and instincts in center are generally very advanced.  Though he weighs just 165-170 lbs at this point, he's already showing plus power (and it's widely believed that there's a ton more power to come as he matures physically).   He's cocky in a good way.  He's a baseball rat.   He wants it bad.

Baseball America, which ranked him the number two prospect in the Arizona League, notes that Beltre "has easy power despite his undeveloped frame, with natural whip in his swing. His pitch recognition improved as the year progressed, as he learned which pitches he could drive and which he should hit on the ground and try to beat out with his plus-plus speed."

There's nothing not to like here.  Nothing.

Statiscially, his shortcoming right now is -- of course -- plate discipline but as BA notes, he's already showing tangible signs of improvement during his still  nascent career. 

The Rangers asked Beltre where he thought he should begin the 2008 season and he told them Bakersfield but that he thought he'd finish the year in Frisco.   I doubt he'll get his wish, but  he will spend the summer as probably the youngest player in the MWL (he won't turn 19 until November).   

10)   Tim Smith -- 21 YO  Outfielder (LH)  (2007 7th Round)

The Canada native set school records for his career batting average (.459), career OBP (.547), career slugging percentage (.736), stolen bases (41), single season batting average (.468) and single season OBP (.553) as a JUCO star at Midland (TX) College before moving on to Arizona State for one season where he hit .333 / .443 / .446.    He demonstrated similar plate discipline at Spokane where he hit .284 / .396 / .383 in his pro debut in spite of playing through a hand injury.

Smith is said to have a below average arm and doesn't project to have plus power, but his defensive skills are adequate enough that they could allow his ability to work counts and get on base to get him a few rungs up the ladder.   He earned rave reviews at instructs and I would not be surprised to see him open the season with Bakersfield.   In a perfect world, he becomes a Rusty Greer type of player with a bit less power and a bit more speed.

9)   Kevin Mahar --  26 YO CF/RF  (RH)   (2004 Undrafted FA)

Mahar spent most of the 2007 season on the 40-man roster and appeared in seven games for the Rangers:  quite an accomplishment for a guy who wasn't even drafted.    

The Michigan native and Indiana University alum is one of the best pure athletes in the system (he was an all-star quarterback in Michigan prep football) with the physical tools to more than adequately fill any outfield position, but his skills at the plate have kept him from taking the final step.

Mahar makes reasonable contact and  has some pop in his bat (he hit 20 dingers for Frisco in 2006), but his K/BB rates keep getting worse instead of better and that, ultimately, is what keeps him from breaking through as a big league 4th outfielder.   In 391 at-bats for Oklahoma, Mahar fanned 98 times while drawing just 14 walks.

Defensively, the 6'5" Mahar covers tons of ground in the outfield and has a plus arm that would make him an asset for the Rangers, but hitters with his statistical profile simply can't survive against big league pitching.  He's got to change his approach now if his career is to continue.

8)  David Paisano -- 20 YO CF  (RH)   (2006 Trade Acquisition)

A Venezuelan,  Paisano signed with the White Sox as a 17 year old back in 2004 before making his pro debut with the Southsiders' DSL club in the 2005 season where he hit .272 / .321 / .377.   He stayed home in 2006 and hit .338 / .430 / .477 for a Venezuelan Summer League club co-owned by the White Sox and the Orioles (I'm not sure if that club is known as the RolandHemonds, but they should be).

Texas acquired Paisano as a throw in with Brandon McCarthy in December of 2006 and assigned him to Clinton for the 2007 season where he struggled mightily at the dish, but improved as the year went along.

Paisano is considered a tremendous defensive player with great instincts and range, plus speed and a plus-plus arm.   Statistically speaking, his plate discipline and strike zone recognition appear to be utterly woeful (the .343 OBP he put up in July was driven by six plunks;  he otherwise delivered his more-or-less standard 4-1 K/BB ratio during that month).

At an athletic 6'1",  175 lbs., Paisano makes a good visual impression and is one of those players who is far more highly regarded by those who have seen him play than by those who have not.  He will repeat the MWL in 2008 at an age-appropriate 20.   He's a major breakout candidate if he continues to improve his strike zone judgment.

7)  John C. Mayberry, Jr. -- 24 YO  RF  (RH)  (2005 1st Round)

I freely admit a bias against this player.   When the Rangers -- eternally in need of a center fielder -- picked him out of the first round of the 2005 draft,  they left two guys on the board who will begin the 2008 season as starters and budding stars in center:   Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston) and Colby Rasmus (St. Louis).   

Just three years after the Rangers spent their first round pick on a college hitter whose swing needed to be entirely rebuilt (Drew Meyer, the 2002 firster), they did it again with Mayberry.    At the end of the 2006 season, it appeared that Mayberry was on his way.   He wound up his otherwise uninspiring MWL season by hitting .330 / .454 / .619 in 97 August at-bats.

But as the 2007 season dawned it appeared that the improvements he'd made the previous August were more of an anomoly than a sign of lasting improvement.   

Mayberry hit just .250 / .294 / .510 in 100 April at-bats for Bakersfield in the extremely hitter-friendly Cal League before turning in a promising May during which he hit just .230 and fanned 33 times, but also drew 19 walks which allowed him to get on base at a .343 clip.   That month, of course, was followed by a miserable month of June, split between Bakersfield (.194 / .265 / .355) and Frisco  (.231 / .322 / .404).

Mayberry is an adequate right fielder, but far from great (watching him in Frisco playing next to the brilliant Brandon Boggs in center caused Mayberry to appear more mediocre than he really is).

I'll be blunt:   School's out.  He's got a lot of talent and a lot of tools, but if Mayberry doesn't break out this year, he never will.

6)  Miguel Alfonzo -- 19 YO LF (2005 International FA signee)

Alfonzo, a Venezuelan, is big kid with a big bat who in his first professional season demonstrated strike zone judgment rare for kids of his age coming from latin america.

After a few games in the DSL, the Rangers brought Alfonzo to Arizona in early July and he tore up the league, hitting .310 / .405 / .416.   

Powerfully built at 6'3" and about 200 lbs., it's not difficult to see big power numbers emerging from him in the near future and you have to be impressed with the fact that, though he clearly has the body to generate thunder right now, he seems to be more interested in controlling the strike zone and making contact.    He has a short, fluid path to the ball that allows him to make consistent, hard contact.   His defense is not considered a strength.

Though it is probably coincidental, it is interesting to note that Alfonzo hit .259 / .377 / .310 in 58 at-bats with the bases empty and .364 / .435 / .527 in 55 at-bats with ducks on the pond (including .381 / .500 / .571 with runners on base and two outs).

5)   Paul Keali'i (Kea) Kometani -- 25 YO RHP  (2005 15th Round)

The Pepperdine alum and Hawaii native who features one of the dirtiest pitches in the system --  a plus-plus diving splitter that just falls off the table -- moved from the Frisco rotation to the bullpen in mid-May, enjoying solid success throughout the remainder of the season  (8 saves;  3.40 ERA in 33 relief appearances), but it wasn't until he got to Surprise in October for Arizona Fall League play that he really took off.

In nine outings for the Rafters, Kometani posted three saves and a 1.80 ERA while holding AFL hitters to a .143 batting average.   He fanned 17 and walked just two in 10 innings of work.

Kometani had never posted a K/9 above 8 in his minor league career as a starter, but once he moved to the Riders' pen, his ratio shot up to 10.53 and his BB ratio went down significantly, though that's never been a real issue for him.

Kometani's fastball velocity -- which sat at 88 when he came into the system -- has increased to 92-93 mph.   

He's a sharp young man with great character and intellect who will give himself every chance to succeed.   Don't be surprised to see him get a look in Arlington this year.

4)    Evan Reed -- 22 YO RHP  (2007 3rd Round)

I'm sort of cheating here by putting Reed in this group even though he spent most of his first pro season as a starter.    The Rangers want their best arms in rotations whenever possible, even if they don't actually project them as starters down the road.   Reed is one of the organization's best arms.

The former Cal Poly-SLO closer had an enormously successful professional debut, quickly moving from the Spokane pen to the rotation and then on to Clinton where he registered almost equally ridiculous L/R splits (.111 / .227 / .167 vs. LH hitters and .146 / .226 / .188 vs. RH hitters). 

The right handed Reed has a classic pitchers build at 6'4",  230 lbs. with a tremendous lower half and the Rangers worked with him at fall instructs to use that big body generate more power.    Though pre-draft scouting reports had him dealing 90-96 mph cheese,  it's likely that he'll reach the upper end of that span more consistently as he becomes more comfortable with his delivery and stops throwing across his body. 

Reed also throws a slider and is developing a changeup, but has a long ways to go with that offering.    

Reed did not allow a dinger in 2007 -- either at Clinton, Spokane or Cal Poly-SLO.   He figures to open the season in the Bakersfield rotation where his homerless streak will likely come to an end in short order. 

3)   Warner Madrigal --  24 YO RHP  (2007 Waiver Claim)

Signed as an outfielder out of the Dominican Republic by Anaheim back in 2001, Madrigal didn't make it out of low-A ball as a hitter,  and the Angels finally gave up on him after he broke  his hand early in the 2006 season.   But they sent him back to extended spring training and ultimately gave his plus arm a test drive in the AZL Angels bullpen at the end of 2006 before assigning him to the MWL in 2007 where, after the All-Star break, he was one of the league's most dominant pitchers.

After posting a 3.64 ERA and a 9.40 K/9 in 27 games before the MWL mid-season classic, he improved those figures to 0.57 ERA and 12.77 K/9 in 27 appearances after the break.  He walked 17 before the break (29.1 innings) and just six afterwards (31.1 innings).   He held the MWL to a .129 batting average after the break.

The stocky Madrigal features a 97 mph fastball and a power slider as well as a developing change.  He's also rumored to have a splitter in his arsenal.

My friend Jamey Newberg was the first to explain the mysterious circumstances under which the Rangers acquired Madrigal.   In short, Jon Daniels shrewdly exploited a paperwork error made by new Angels GM Tony Reagins, but you can read more about that here:  http://newberg.mlblogs.com/newberg_report_/2007/11/the_newberg_rep_8.html

2)   Brennan Garr -- 24 YO RHP  (2006 9th Round)

A raw power arm who saw very limited action on the mound at the University of Northern Colorado, Garr enjoyed a meteoric ascendency in 2007, beginning at low-A Clinton and ending the summer by getting a cameo with double-A Frisco (where he understandably struggled, walking 10, plunking one, unleashing two wild pitches and fanning just five in seven innings of work).

In 25 appearances for Clinton, Garr fanned 50 and walked 16 in 39 innings of work (11.54 K/9), holding the MWL to a .177 batting average.   In  ten appearances for Bakersfield, he was even nastier, limiting Cal League hitters to a .157 batting average while fanning 20 in 16.1 frames.

Garr deals a heavy 93ish fastball with armside run and a hard-breaking slurve.  He's working on a changeup as well.  The control problems that marred his otherwise enticing NWL performance with Spokane in 2006 (14 walks in 26 innings), were excruciatingly evident when he got to Frisco, but he clearly made strides in that department at his two A-ball stops in 2007.   

Having seen both of his home appearances for Frisco, I'd chalk his problems there up to fatigue.   His mechanics were sloppy and without a lot of pitching experience under his belt, it's understandable that he'd begin to wear out at the end of his first full season on the hill at any level.

Garr will open the season as Frisco's closer.   The organization is extremely high on him.

1)   Arlington John (A.J.  aka "Pirate") Murray --  25 YO LHP  (2000 19th Round - DFE)

Back in 2003 when he was just 21, Pirate Murray was a Texas League all-star, ranking among the league leaders with a 3.63 ERA in 27 appearances and the stage was set for him to find his way into the Rangers rotation before his 23rd birthday, but he blew out his shoulder in the spring of 2004 and missed a year of action, coming back as a reliever in Bakersfield in 2005 to begin the process of working his way back up the ladder.

Last September, Murray started two major league games.   Coming back from a shoulder injury is a dicey proposition at best.   That Murray is not only back, but a much better pitcher than he was before his injury is a testament to Murray's heart and head, and to the work that Rick Adair does in keeping his pitchers healthy. 

Murray made made 41 appearances for Oklahoma in 2007, the first 40 of which were out of the pen.   The southpaw who features one of the best changeups in the system held righties to a .200 / .313 / .304 line, which is consistent with his track record while MLB right-handed hitters managed to hit .215 / .308 / .443 off of the Utah native.   

With his added fastball velocity and improved breaking ball, he limited PCL left-handed hitters to a .253 / .321 / .347 line (though big league lefties tuned him up pretty good at .308 / .400 / .692).

It is exceedingly difficult for hitters to lift the ball against Murray, who posted a 2.14  G/F ratio and surrendered just two dingers in 52.2 innings for Oklahoma. 

When I started working on these lists, I was confident -- in spite of the fact that he ended the 2007 with a couple of starts -- that Murray was destined to spend the remainder of his career in the bullpen, perhaps assuming the Ron Mahay role for the 2008 Rangers.    But it appears that I am probably wrong and that Murray should have been listed among the starters (he would have been in my top 10).

Murray will evidently compete for the fifth slot in the Rangers' rotation this spring and if he doesn't win the job, he'll take up residence in the RedHawks rotation until he gets another chance with the big club.

1) Michael Main -- 19 YO RHP (2007 1st Round)

Of all the young, high-upside, power arms the Rangers have accumulated in the past two years -- Blake Beavan, Fabio Castillo, Neftali Feliz, Wilmer Font, Carlos Pimentel, Geuris Grullon, Wilfredo Boscan, Neil Ramirez, Kasey Kiker -- none has the combination of pure talent, advanced approach, complete repertoire, plus makeup and athletic ability that Michael Main brings to the table.

Font and Feliz might throw a bit harder, but they lack secondary stuff. Beavan's slider might be the most overwhelming hard breaking ball in the group, but he's just now beginning to develop the change and doesn't have Main's fastball velocity.

The top power arms in what would be the 2007 draft assembled at a showcase in Arkansas during the summer of 2006 and scouts had a chance to see them all lined up, one after another -- Main, Beavan, Rick Porcello, Matt Harvey, etc. -- "but," according to Baseball America's Alan Matthews, "none was as impressive as Main. During one sequence he delivered fastballs at 97 mph, 97, 96, 96, 94, 96, 94 and 95. When he showed some feel for his 79 mph changeup and 74-77 mph breaking ball, there was little question who had claimed the title as the top rising senior pitching prospect."

After the Rangers gleefully scooped him up with the 24th pick late in the first round of the 2007 draft, Main signed quickly and reported to Surprise where he spent a week in center field (he was also regarded as one of the top prep prospects at that position), before climbing the bump for the first time as a pro, but once he did, he dropped jaws.

In 12.2 innings for the AZL Rangers, Main fanned 16, held the opposition to a .196 batting average and surrendered two runs (1.42 ERA) before he was sent packing to the NWL where -- like John Danks, Eric Hurley and Kasey Kiker before him -- he would face off against a league composed almost exclusively of college draftees three to four years older than himself.

Main pitched just 15.1 innings for Spokane -- not enough action to qualify for Baseball America's list of the top-20 prospects in the league -- but if he had qualified, BA's Matthews says that he would have been the league's #1 prospect, doling out this assessment:

"He's got a quick, clean arm action, and began to make some adjustments in his approach to pitching. He has a power breaking ball with tight spin and more than just feel for his changeup. He's been up to 97 mph in the past, and was checking in with 93s and 94s in the NWL. One scout compared him to Mike Mussina with a slightly firmer fastball, and don't forget that Mussina could bring it in his prime, too."

Yeah. Give me some of that.

Have fun in Clinton Mr. Main.

2) Eric Hurley -- 22 YO RHP (2005 1st Round)

I know I'm going to take a beating over this one. At the onset, let me say that I think the world of Eric Hurley, and in a feeble attempt to soften the return blow I'm going to take for not naming him the top pitching prospect in the system, let me start off with what I love about this young man.

He's got an explosive, lively fastball that he locates at will to either side of the plate and which gains velocity as the game progresses (usually 91ish early, and 95ish by the 5th inning). His slider has the potential to become a consistent plus pitch. It was much better in 2007 than it was in 2006. It's close, but he still hangs it about as often as not. He's got tremendous mound presence. He's a gutsy competitor. He's visibly intense, but generally level-headed. He clearly wants to win every game. It matters to him.

Having said all of that, I have some concerns about where he's headed based on what he's done, consistently, during his minor league career. This trend bothers me:

His last three months at High-A Bakersfield:
May: 3.03 ERA; 11.22 K/9
June: 4.18 ERA; 10.29 K/9
July: 9.45 ERA; 8.56 K/9

His last three months at Double-A Frisco:
April: 1.50 ERA; 6.90 K/9; 1 HR allowed
May: 3.46 ERA; 7.62 K/9; 5 HR allowed
June: 5.49 ERA; 9.15 K/9; 7 HR allowed

His two full months at Triple-A Oklahoma:
July: 3.09 ERA; 7.97 K/9; 2 HR allowed
August: 6.14 ERA; 7.06 K/9; 9 HR allowed

As I've said elsewhere, for players with a substantial track record I pay a lot of attention to signs that they are able to learn and adjust to their competition. Do they get better from month-to-month / year-to-year? I love guys whose raw numbers get better with each promotion. Players who fail to show that they can make adjustments in the minors are more likely to hit their head on a ceiling before they make it to the show and very unlikely to survive MLB if they get there because on that level you don't survive without learning how to make adjustments.

I'm not saying that Hurley can't make adjustments, I'm just saying that the statistical evidence hardly proves that he has the ability to stay one step ahead of the competition. I would like to see, for once, Hurley finish off a league stronger than he begins one.

Like most power righties, Hurley emerged from high school ball without an changeup and the development of his offspeed offering has been slow to come since turning pro.

Consequently, his L/R splits have looked like this:

Bakersfield 2006:

vs. RH: .225 / .284 / .347

vs. LH: .256 / .323 / .424

Frisco 2006:

vs. RH: .133 / .217 / .213

vs. LH: .235 / .316 / .451

At the end of his run with Frisco in 2006, RoughRiders pitching coach Terry Clark said: “Now, it’s just a matter of him getting a changeup. After that, his next stop won’t be (Triple-A) Oklahoma City, it will be the big leagues if everything works out right.”

I had the chance to see most of Hurley's Frisco outings in 2006 and, if he had a changeup at that point, it was hard to tell. Returning to Frisco in 2007, however, the offspeed pitch began to show up a bit more often, though it was far from a high quality offering. Nonetheless, just his willingness to throw it once in awhile -- even though he was prone to leaving it up in the zone more often than not -- resulted in this:

Frisco 2007:

vs. RH: .225 / .266 / .337

vs. LH: .211 / .310 / .463

Thus, even though he was still more likely to walk lefties or give up extra-base hits to them, for the first time, southpaw bats had a harder time getting hits against Hurley than did righties. It was in important sign of progress.

Then, out of nowhere, Hurley posted these splits in Oklahoma last summer:

vs. RH: .281 / .333 / .485

vs. LH: .176 / .286 / .380

Wow.

I'm not at all worried about the fact that Hurley got knocked around by right-handed hitters for the first time -- ever. His track record of manhandling them is too long and too strong to worry a whole lot about that. But if those lefty splits mean what I think they mean (I didn't get to see him pitch for Oklahoma last year), then the stage is set for Hurley to take that final step and become a big league rotation horse for many years to come.

In addition to learning to throw (and trust) his changeup, Hurley still needs to show more consistency with his potentially plus slider, but he's close -- really close -- to being ready for prime time.

It appears likely that the composition of the Rangers rotation will provide no shortage of opportunities for guys like Hurley (or Galarraga, or Mendoza, or Murray, or Loe, or Rupe, or...) to get an audition in Arlington this summer. I suspect that once Hurley gets his shot, he'll fight like **** to keep his place, and he'll succeed.

3)  Blake Beavan --  18 YO RHP  (2007 1st Round)

If in fact it is true that the biggest problem with Blake Beavan is -- as has been reported fairly consistently -- his belief that he's G-d's gift to pitching, then I'd say that's no problem at all, so long as he's receptive to instruction.    Bob Gibson was fairly certain that he was The Man.   Roger Clemens has always had a pretty lofty opinion of himself and nobody ever accused Curt Schilling of lacking self confidence.

There's arrogance, and then there's hubris.  And whether extreme self-confidence becomes an asset or a liability is, to a large extent, knowing the subtle difference between the two.

The big (6'7",  220 lbs.) hard-throwing righty comes to the party battle tested at the highest levels of junior play, famously dominating the Cuban national team -- he fanned 11 in a complete game shutout in Cuba in September, 2006 -- and wowing scouts with his power repertoire on the showcase circuit for a couple of years.   He was named Baseball America's Youth Player of the Year in 2006, an award previously won this decade by the likes of Delmon Young, Cameron Maybin and Nick Adenhart.

Beavan deals mid-90's cheese and a devastating mid-80's slider from a three-quarters arm slot.   Pre-draft scouting reports suggested that his delivery was cause for at least moderate concern as he tends to recoil after delivery, which could lead to injury.   He pitches upright and it appears that his lower half may be under-utilized which might also place unecessary stress on his arm.   It's not difficult to spot the slider coming when he lowers his arm angle and, since he didn't need one in high school, his change is underdeveloped.

Thus, while Beavan is clearly full of raw talent and has proven that he's a vicious competitor, there's a lot of work to be done by the Rangers development people if the Big Nasty (as he was known in high school) is to reach his considerable potential.   

The concern here is that his ego may stand in the way of development.   Will Beavan be willing to struggle through a rough patch at, say, Clinton while he works on a circle change while he could be dominating with his fastball / slider combo?   Will he endure a month or two of lost velocity while he does what he has to do to clean up his delivery, or alter the release point on his slider?

I almost hope to see Beavan take one step backward before he takes two steps forward.    I hope that he uses his self-confidence to convince himself that he can affford to struggle at times as he works out the kinks in his game because his ultimate destiny is preordained.   

Things appear to have gotten off to a good start in that regard.   By all accounts, Beavan was extremely receptive to instruction while at Instructs in Surprise and he has articulated an understanding that the style and repertoire that made him a millionaire at age 18 probably won't make him a mega-millionaire in eight or ten years.

4)   Neftali Feliz --  19 YO RHP (2007 Trade Acquisition)

The PECOTA similarity rating on the Baseball Prospectus website indicates that the two pitchers most similar to Feliz at the same age are Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez and Joel Zumaya.   BP's Kevin Goldstein considers Feliz to be the Rangers only "Five Star" talent.

Works for me.

It continues to boggle my mind that Jon Daniels was able to pry this guy away from Atlanta after already having coaxed John Schuerholtz into putting Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrison on the table.  This was no "afterthought."   Baseball America ranked Feliz as the #8 prospect in the GCL in 2006 and  #4 among Appy Leaguers in 2007.

The long (6'3"), lean (180 lbs.), Feliz fires off mid-to-high 90's heat with late boring action (which is what separates him from the likes of Juan Morillo) from a clean, loose-armed delivery that he struggles to repeat at times.    As you might imagine, he loves his heater to the extent that he's neglected his secondary pitches.  His breaking ball gets very good reviews, but it is evidently seen in public only slightly more often than J.D. Salinger.   As for changing speeds,  Feliz has two:   unbelievably hard, and then harder than that.

Feliz fanned 13.03 per 9 innings during his swim through the GCL in 2006 and 16.2 per nine  -- yeah,  16.2 -- for Spokane NWL in 2007.   In 82.1 minor league innings to date, he's held opponents to a .198 batting average and surrendered two homers.   Two.

Feliz can probably get away with dealing almost nothing but cheese and still put up "sexy" numbers until he hits Triple-A, but he won't be doing himself any favors if he decides to go that way.    The MWL shouldn't be any kind of a challenge for him and I expect him to make it to Bakersfield by July.   Probably the only thing that will keep him from reaching Frisco by the end the year will be the Rangers' own memory of what that sort of rush job did to Edinson Volquez and Juan Dominguez.