This is either the easiest Derby to handicap in recent memory, or the toughest. One horse -- Big Brown -- appears to tower over this field in terms of pure ability, but there are a lot of reasons to question whether he will become the third favorite in the last thirty years to win the Kentucky Derby.
He'll spot the field a few lengths due to the fact that he's drawn the outermost 20 post position and, as an early speed horse, he has to get to the rail before they hit the first turn, a little more than a quarter of a mile after they break from the gate. This, it seems, is a non-negotiable tactic because if he doesn't make it to the rail by then, he'll surrender even more ground going wide around the turn. That he'll be carrying the only jockey in the race to win the Derby more than once -- Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux -- certainly helps. When on top of his game, as he is these days, Desormeaux can do things that nobody else can do on the back of a horse.
Even if he has an uneventful trip to the first turn, however, there are other concerns. For one, he's extremely unexperienced with only three career races, and only two this year. Horses with only two prep races are 2 for their last 55 tries in this race. The last horse to win the Derby off of three prior career races was Regret -- a filly -- in 1915.
Big Brown's pedigree suggests that a mile and a quarter is probably out of his reach. His father, Boundary, was a flat sprinter who sired nothing but sprinters and milers in his career at stud. On his mother's side of the family, Big Brown benefits from strong distance influences, including a fourth/fifth generation in-breeding to a mare named Rough Shod II who has proven to be an extreme distance influence. But Boundary was bred to many distance influence mares in his career and never came up with a graded stakes winner at over a mile.
Another matter of concern is that Big Brown has terrible feet. If the track is sloppy, this will be a factor because a sloppy track has no cushion.
If Big Brown falters, there appear to be two other horses with the ability to win this race: Pyro and Colonel John, but both of them come with substantial question marks as well.
Pyro ran a good second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over a sloppy track at Monmouth last October and came back at three to post impressive victories in two stakes races in Louisiana. But he ran an uninspired 10th in the Bluegrass Stakes over a synthetic surface at Keeneland last month. He's certainly bred to love the distance and he's demonstrated enough talent in the past to mark him as a serious contender, so the question is whether you can throw out his clunker at Keeneland. Did he just hate the synthetic surface, or is this a horse going backwards?
Colonel John dominated the California contingent but he's never run over a conventional race track -- all six of his career starts have come over the synthetic surfaces in California so many experts are questioning his ability to race as well over a conventional dirt surface. That, for me, is a non-factor with this horse. He's trained marvelously over the Churchill surface and as the son of Tiznow -- a two-time winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic at the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter, once at Churchill -- he's a candidate to actually run better on real dirt or slop than over the fake stuff.
My biggest question with Colonel John is whether or not he's actually fast enough to win, even on his best day. His speed figures have not been terribly impressive, however the California horses have proven that they tend to move way up when they leave the synthetic surfaces at home and travel over real dirt.
I like longshots Court Vision (bred for distance and training the best of his life), Denis of Cork and Monba, and my sentimental choice is speedster Bob Black Jack who I actually think could still be in contention as they head for home..
HOW THE RACE SHOULD UNFOLD:
Look for Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal, Recaputuretheglory and Gayego at the front of the pack going into the first turn. I don't believe any of these have the class to go on and finish in the top three, though Bob Black Jack has proven time and again that he's got the heart to overcome his physical limitations, so I expect him to hang on the longest of this group.
Look for Desormeaux, on Big Brown, to find a spot just behind those, try to settle into cruising speed down the backstretch, and surge for the lead going into the final turn. I expect him to challenge Bob Black Jack at the three-eighths pole, and probably put him away as they come out of the final turn.
The filly, Eight Belles, Cool Coal Man and Monba figure to join Big Brown in the stalking group. Monba will try to go with Big Brown when he makes his move nearing the final turn.
I figure Colonel John to be near the front of a second flight of horses behind the early speed and their stalkers, joined by Denis of Cork, Adriano, Z Humor, Z Fortune, Tale of Ekati and Smooth Air. Colonel John appears to be the best of this bunch and should lead a three horse charge along with Denis of Cork -- probably with a rail-hugging trip -- and Adriano as they attempt to draw up to the leaders as they round the final turn.
The early laggards -- Pyro, Court Vision, Visionaire, and Anak Nakal -- will have to negotiate horrible traffic to give themselves a clear path when they begin to crank it up for their late runs coming out of the final turn. Of these, Pyro has proven he has the capacity to fire the most furious late run, and I expect him to do so again. Court Vision, with the great Garrett Gomez aloft, will need to get the jump on him and hope to hold him off for a quarter of a mile.
Thus, turning for home, I am looking for Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John and Denis of Cork to be in contention, with Pyro and Court Vision moving up on them.
And that is when the questions will be answered.
I believe that Colonel John will corral Big Brown at the eighth pole and hold off Pyro, who will pass a tiring Big Brown in the late stages to get up for second. For betting purposes, I'm going to hope that doesn't happen.
Instead, I hope that either Court Vision, Monba or Denis of Cork find their way into the top three with either Pyro, Big Brown or Colonel John on top.
The objective of this draft wasn't to go with the guy the selectors would want their team to pick, but to predict who they would actually pick. Thus, while Hosmer likely would have been a top five pick based on talent alone, he dropped down the board because he is a Boras client who is asking for a $7 million signing bonus.
