Draft Day Preview

The Rule 4 amateur draft takes place today -- you can watch (ESPN 2) or listen (mlb.com) live, starting at 1 p.m. -- and the Rangers have the 11th selection in the first round.

The top of this first round seems as unsettled as any in recent memory as there isn't a whole lot to separate the top 15 or 20 prospects.   Moreover, the Boras factor (prospects falling down the draft chart because of their agent's outlandish signing demands) muddies the picture quite a bit this year, as it usually does.

Several players have been rumored to be on the Rangers radar for the 11th pick, but that may or may not mean anything.   While it was pretty well known that the Rangers coveted John Danks in 2003 and Blake Beavan last year,  no one connected Junior Mayberry to the Rangers in 2005.   I don't recall anyone projecting Thomas Diamond to go to Texas the year before that.

One thing I think you can be fairly sure of:   the Rangers will pick whoever they believe is the best player on the board when their turn comes up, regardless of the player's position or age.  

In the first round, they are no more likely to take a college player (Mark Teixeira 2001, Drew Meyer 2002, Thomas Diamond 2004,  Mayberry 2005, Julio Borbon 2007, Tommy Hunter 2007) than a high school kid  (John Danks 2003, Kasey Kiker 2006, Blake Beavan 2007, Michael Main 2007, Neil Ramirez 2007).

The one caveat to the BPA (best player available) theory is that they may be forced to shy away from any player who insists on a major league contract since they gave one to Julio Borbon last year and are faced with an almost daily struggle to manage the 40-man roster due to pitching instability at the big league level.

Finally, I would add that it's unlikely that there will be a whole lot to distinguish between the best five or six players on the board when the Rangers pick, and given the incredible depth in the farm system right now, there really aren't any glaring weaknesses in the organization other than -- perhaps -- power-hitting corner outfielders (but those are scarce in this draft anyway) so I don't think the Rangers will draft for need.

When the Rangers make their selections today and tomorrow, I truly believe they will pick the guy they think is the best baseball player -- regardless of age or position -- who is available at the time.   And given the recent performance of the scouting department, I have much more confidence than usual that they'll be right.

It's highly likely that the Rangers pick won't match up with Baseball America's ranking or Keith Law's or John Sickels' or anyone elses.   It will be their own draft board, created through the hard work of their own area scouts, crosscheckers and advisors.   People with something on the line.  People who will face actual consequences  if they are wrong. 

And with all of that as prelude, let's look at some of the players I think could become Texas Rangers property tomorrow:

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Eric Hosmer:   1b,  American Heritage HS, Plantation FL

This is probably the best hitter in the draft and belongs among the top three picks based on ability alone, but there is some speculation that he might slide down the board because his agent -- you know who -- wants a $7mm signing bonus for the kid, and possibly a major league deal.    If Hosmer does slide to the Rangers and they are certain they can negotiate a deal that does not include a major league contract, I do not believe that they will allow a couple of million dollars to stand between them and who will in all likelihood be -- by far -- the best talent on the board.  

Hosmer has plus-plus bat speed and power from the left side and an advanced approach.  He also wields a rocket arm (he was the closer for his state championship prep team, dealing 95 mph cheese) and while he's not a plus runner, it's not inconceivable that he could be moved out to right field as a pro.

The chances of Hosmer being on the board when the Rangers pick aren't great, but if he is, he'll probably be Rangers property tonight.

Andrew Cashner:   RP,  TCU

A lean 6'6" right hander who has overwhelmed collegiate hitters this year with a 95 - 97 mph fastball and a fast-improving slider.  The problem is that he's a closer and the Rangers are highly unlikely to draft a guy at #11 as a closer.    Cashner believes he can stretch out and maintain his velocity as a starter.    

A lot of people would grouse about this pick for a variety of reasons, but I would be fine with it.    Cashner has a plus tool you know can help you in a big way, one way or another and I'm not terribly crazy about drafting guys with the ceiling of a #4 starter or a role player in the top 20 picks.   This is where you shoot the moon on big talent, because the odds of coming across big talent later in the draft diminishes quickly.   

Having said that, I do not care for the philosophy of drafting a third-year college guy with the idea that you like some idea of what you can turn him into instead of being in love with what he actually is.    Other than Hosmer's bat speed and power,  there just aren't a ton of plus-plus tools in this draft.   Cashner's pure velocity certainly gives him a rare skill anybody can use one way or another.

Aaron Hicks:   CF, Wilson HS, Long Beach CA.

One of the best pure athletes in the draft, Hicks also comes with relatively refined skills.  In other words, he's not just a toolbox.   A switch hitter, he's also a top flight pitching prospect, but wants to play center as a professional.    His hitting skills are, by all accounts, on the upswing this year and he has the gaudy numbers to prove it. 

Hicks is an 80 runner with an 80 arm, much like Engel Beltre.    He's projected to have more power down the line as he grows and fills out, also like Beltre.      

"I don't think Aaron would be as happy just playing one out of every five games because he's such a competitor," said his coach Andy Hall.    "I could see early on that this kid was special," Hall said. "The way he glided through the outfield and prepared himself for every game is something I've really respected about him." 

If Hicks is still on the board when the Rangers pick -- and there's a good chance he will be -- he  will likely be the most physically talented player available.   Whether the Rangers believe he's a good bet to realize his upside will determine whether he's Texas property by the end of the day.  

Unless Hosmer or Missouri righty Aaron Crow fall to the Rangers at #11, I suspect this will be the guy.

Christian Friedrich:    LHSP,   Eastern Kentucky University.

If the Rangers made it a rule to always pick the most talented lefty starter available in the first round, they would own Scott Kazmir, John Danks, Scott Elbert, Mark Pawelek, Kasey Kiker and Aaron Poreda.  Things aren't going too well for Pawelek, but obviously any club would be thrilled to death to have Kazmir, Danks, Elbert, Kiker and Poreda in their stable.       

When the 11th pick comes around, Friedrich will likely be the best lefty starter on the board and I couldn't complain if the Rangers call his name.     Friedrich, a third-year guy,  is a late bloomer who has seen his velocity climb from low-to-mid 80's as a high school guy to high-80's / low-90's today.   

His signature pitch is a big droopy 12-6 yakker that has been called unhittable and he augments his two primary offerings with a cutter and a sparsely used change.   Though he is said to command his fastball well to both sides of the plate,  he is prone to not finishing the pitch which results in less movement on a pitch that stays up.  

In many ways, Friedrich -- who is an athletic  6'3",  205 -- appears to be something along the lines of a John Danks replacement kit and he's the kind who could be ready for Arlington within a couple of years. 

Aaron Crow:   RHSP,  University of Missouri.

There's some late talk that Crow, who brings mid-to-high 90's cheese, might fall all the way to the Rangers, but I don't believe it.    Crowe rides a 92-96 mph sinker and a high-80's slider while mixing in a show-me change.   If he somehow slides to 11,  he's a Ranger tonight.

Shooter Hunt:  RHSP,  Tulane University.

This would be the Rangers' second run at Hunt, whom they drafted three years ago but failed to sign.   Hunt is an erratic righty power pitcher with a low-to-mid 90's fastball and a hard slurve.   If the Rangers decide that draft for need -- a "near ready" starter -- and Crow is gone, Hunt will probably be their guy.