Farm Report Replay

In January, 2005, this is what I wrote about  Adrian  Gonzalez -- who leads the NL with 54 RBIs and ranks second in the league with 17 homers (more than Josh Hamilton, btw) -- ranking him as the top position player prospect in the system:

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1) Adrian Gonzalez (1b)

It seems impossible, but in spite of a tremendous year in the PCL at age 22, Adrian Gonzalez's stock fell considerably this year because he failed to hit home runs with any significant degree of regularity. But the harder I looked at his season and the more I studied it, putting it in context, the more impressed I was.

Gonzalez, who turned 22 midway through the 2004 season and dropped about 20 pounds of baby fat between the 2003 and 2004 seasons, hit .304 / .364 / .457 at triple A Oklahoma. Gonzalez is younger than Juan Senreiso, Vince Sinisi, Drew Meyer, and fully two years younger than both Ian Kinsler and Jason Botts. He has already made his MLB debut and he hit comfortably over .300 in triple A. What's not to like? Evidently, hitting only 12 homers is what drove his stock down.

But before we bury Gonzalez on the basis of the theory that he lacks the power to hold down first base for the Rangers, let's try to put the fact that he slugged "just" .457 in triple A at the age of 22 / 23 in context. When Jason Giambi was 22, he slugged .470 at high A Modesto. Todd Helton slugged .333 at single A Asheville. Jim Edmonds slugged .490 in triple A Edmonton. Erubiel Durazo slugged .464 in the Mexican League. Moises Alou slugged .464 in the low A Sally League. And when Rafael Palmeiro was 22, he slugged .442 at double A Pittsfield. All went on to post career slugging averages right at or comfortably over .500 in the big leagues.

Bottom line: It's too early to give up on the idea of Gonzalez developing power.

Once upon a time, folks projected Palmeiro onto Gonzalez because they share the same textbook, silky smooth left-handed swing, but lately Gonzalez is more often (and probably more accurately) compared to Mark Grace, John Olerud and Doug Mienkiewicz. He is a high average hitter with some gap power who uses the whole field, wields an exceptional glove and is burdened by unbelievably slow feet. I can't overstate that last fact: he is probably the slowest professional athlete I've ever seen. He's so horribly slow, that I've often heard fans who evidently assume that no one could possibly be that slow complain that he is lazy, which he obviously isn't. His "technical" footwork around the bag, however, is above average.

Scouts are split on whether or not Gonzalez will ever develop fence power and as this past season wore on it seems as if more and more of them moved into the camp believing that he never will. But before we pigeonhole Gonzalez as a powerless, slick-fielding first baseman in the Mark Grace / Doug Mienkiewicz / John Olerud vein, let's allow for the possibility that he could change. Last year, he dropped a lot of the baby fat. If he hit the weight room hard this winter and packed some muscle onto his frame, he could certainly could be in line for a breakthrough power season.

Whether the power comes along or not, he can hit and you can be reasonably sure that he always will, no matter who is throwing. He has great balance with a short, quick swing. He distributes line drives all over the ball yard, hitting fastballs and offspeed pitches alike. Gonzalez hits lefties and righties almost equally well, with a slightly better average against lefties and a little more power against right handers (.298 / .360 / .473 vs. RHP and .319 / .373 / .420 vs. LHP). For those of you who believe in "clutch hitting," get this: Gonzalez hit .343 with runners on base, .353 with runners in scoring position, .320 with runners in scoring position and two outs and an incredible .538 with the bases loaded.

I can't find a trend in his season. He had a power burst in June, going .360 / .439 / .640 for the month only to regress to .307 / .358 / .409 in July and bounce back a bit to .321 / .372 / .450 in August, which was probably his most representative month.

PROJECTION: I can't wait to see AG in spring training. I'm hoping to see a stronger, more muscular hitter and if I do, I'll be very excited because if the power does come, he's the whole package. If someone wants him to round out the right deal, I have little doubt that the Rangers will be willing to send him packing, but do not be surprised if Mark Teixeira moves to the outfield at some point this season to make room for AG at first.