FRISCO –  The RoughRiders fought through having the ‘Famous Chicken’  spending several innings as their first base coach to secure the Texas League South’s first-half divisional championship, scoring 15 runs before an overstuffed Dr. Pepper Ballpark crowd.

But  the most important and most exciting thing happening in the ballpark went almost completely unnoticed by at least 9,000 of the more than 10,000 fans (almost none of whom had ever heard of Elvis Andrus and who were generally far more interested in libations than crafty lefties).

Southpaw starter Michael Ballard (5-3;  4.20)  painted a masterpiece.   And if his past performances hold, he’s set to put together an excellent second half.

The University of Virginia alum got through seven innings in a remarkably efficient 86 pitches (that’s 12.28 per inning folks), blanking the Hooks on five hits and a walk, punching out five.

Ballard kept Corpus hitters off balance all night with his assortment of a high-80′s fastball, a mid-70′s change and high-60′s 12-6 yakker.   He worked with enormous confidence, throwing any pitch in any count for strikes.

Ballard is not going to blow anyone away with his stuff, but — and this comes as no surprise given his alma mater — he’s an extremely intelligent pitcher who has proven that he does a better job of adjusting to a league’s hitters than they do adjusting to him.

Like John Danks before him, Ballard’s record of constantly figuring out how to succeed after first struggling in a league is a sign of more good things to come, so long as people don’t jump to any conclusions too soon.

In 2007,  Ballard spent three months with Clinton, posting a 5.12 ERA in April (.316 opponents average), a 4.37 ERA (.284 opponents average) in May and a 2.11 ERA in June (.250 opponents average).

He then moved on to Bakersfield where he posted a 6.10 ERA in two June starts,  a 5.63 ERA in six July starts and a 3.48 ERA in five August starts.   Cal Leaguers hit .314 against him in July and then only .227 in August.

Ballard’s Texas League career got of to a great start in April, but he struggled mightily in May.   Halfway through June, however, he’s the clear front-runner for Texas League pitcher of the month with a 0.83 ERA while giving the Riders 21.2 innings through three starts.

 

 

 

After watching Chris Davis in Frisco over the last month of the 2007 season, I told the DMN‘s Evan Grant that Chris Davis would be ready for Arlington by the end of July. 

I was off by about a month. 

One of the reasons I was so high on Davis was that he adjusted so quickly to Texas League play after his promotion from Bakersfield.   And now, 18 games into his Pacific Coast League career, he’s already proven that he’s too much hitter for that league as well.

The 22 year old Davis is ready for Arlington right now.

Davis has started 17 games for Oklahoma.  He’s hit safely in 14 of them.  He’s delivered multiple hits in six of them.   He’s hitting .323 / .400 / .597 / .997 — for an OPS higher than the figure he posted in Frisco.   His BB/K ratio for Oklahoma is 0.47 and his BB/PA ratio is 1.00 — both better figures than he posted in Frisco this year.

The difficulty, of course, is that the Rangers already have two left-hand hitting first baseman on the roster — Frank Catalanotto and, any day now (until he’s hit with a raging case of fibromyalgia, as seems certain at this point) Hank Blalock.

 

 

as I was saying……  

This one was Great:

 

This one, not so much:

When I go into a mediation with a client, one of the first things I tell them is that there may come a time today when we have to make a decision.    And that’s what we’ll do if and when that time comes.  

Until then, just lay in wait.  Let the game come to you.   Don’t form any expectations.   Don’t make any decisions until there’s one to be made — if there’s one to be made.

Because sometimes the other side makes the decision for you by either making you an offer you couldn’t possibly accept or making you one you couldn’t possibly turn down.   The latter is an offer that exceeds your wildest expectations.   It does’t happen often, but when it does, you just sit back, laugh your butt off and exchange high fives around the room.

Yesterday, the Rangers didn’t have any real decision to make when the 11th pick came around.    I can only imagine the laughter and celebratory high-fiving that took place in their draft room when a nearly comatose Bud Selig (was he drunk, or did he suffer a stroke yesterday morning?) announced that the Astros were taking Stanford catcher Jason Castro with the tenth pick.

Leaving Justin Smoak on the board.  

Probably the third or fourth best player in the draft. 

At #11.

 

If you are wondering why absolutely nobody connected the Rangers to Smoak in pre-draft speculation it’s because it seemed to be completely beyond the scope of possibility that he would still be there when Texas picked. 

The switch-hitting first baseman has power from both sides of the plate, is a potential Gold Glover, a great teammate,  the kind of dude who typically loves Texas (i.e. sort of a redneck),  a proven commodity against high-level competition with wood bats, likely to be a quick and easy sign, and should be ready for a big league job within about 20 months.   As one scouting report puts it, he is what he is and that’s awfully good.  As is.  Right now.  

This isn’t some sort of project. 

There won’t be a 1500 at-bat adjustment period for Smoak. 

There won’t be any retooling of his swing or time wasted on learning a new position.   

He’s simply going to need some time — not much, but some — to get used to centering the ball on a wood bat on a consistent basis, and then he’ll be ready to roll.    Maybe two months in Bakersfield this summer.    Maybe three or four months in Frisco next year and then a final polishing in Oklahoma City in July and August of 2009.

 

In the second round,  the Rangers took Robbie Ross, a diminutive high school lefty with great stuff from Nicholasville, Kentucky.   Here again, there probably wasn’t much doubt that he was the best prospect on the board when the selection — number 57 overall — was made.  Ross was ranked the 43rd best prospect in the draft by Baseball America.  

Ross stamped himself as a top-two round guy last summer in a scouting showcase where he upstaged the likes of Tim Melville:    Ross “pitched at 89 mph, touching 92 on the Baseball America Stalker. His slider was up to 82 [with] hard, late tilt, and helped him rack up empty swings. Ross allowed one baserunner, on a walk, and struck out nine of the 12 batters he faced in four hitless innings.”

He fell, in large part, because he’s a signability question. 

Yesterday, Ross told the Louisville Courier-Journal that   “(Teams are) just wondering if they’re going to pay me as much as I’m asking for,” Ross said. “It’s not so much, ‘Is my body built right?’ or ‘Am I throwing well?’ It’s really more about their opinion about the money than it is about my ability.”

Ross, who has the same advisor as Smoak,  is said to be asking for $1.5 million — which is about what Texas paid Blake Beavan last year.  Beavan was the 16th pick in the draft.

 

The cat’s out of the bag now, so I’ll go ahead and tell you about the most recent secret I was sworn to keep.  

Jason Botts is no longer a Ranger.   He’s going to Japan this week.

One of the great things –  no, the greatest thing — about being an intense observer and amateur reporter on the Rangers minor league system over the past many years has been getting to know some of these young players and their families.    Some have become good friends.  Some have become family.    Jason Botts and his mother Judy have become family.

So while I am thrilled for Botts on one hand because he’s going to be in a much better situation, I am also saddened to a degree.  

Bottsy heads off to the Nippon Ham Fighters where their former manager Trey Hillman — who regards Botts as one of his sons –  had placed on the Fighters’ watch list for the past couple of years.     For the first time in a long time, Botts is going to play in an organization that isn’t ambivalent about him.   They really, really want him.   

For the past three  years or so, I’ve compared Botts to Lee Stevens and now the comp bears more weight than ever.    Stevens, whose career stalled in the Angels organization, went off to Japan for a couple of years and returned to enjoy a nice six-year run in the big leagues with Texas and Montreal.  

Botts will be signed to a contract with Nippon through this year and 2009 and I expect that he’ll have opportunities to sign an MLB contract with someone in 2010 — if that’s what he wants.    I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jason — who has a love of life, people and new experiences  – establishes himself as a beloved icon in Nippon that virtually prevents him from ever leaving.  

Either way, this is a great opportnity for an old friend and I wish him all the best.    Here at the Farm Report, we honor our alumni and keep track of them.   So forgive me in advance if from time to time you see a Jason Botts note pop up on this blog. 

The Rule 4 amateur draft takes place today — you can watch (ESPN 2) or listen (mlb.com) live, starting at 1 p.m. – and the Rangers have the 11th selection in the first round.

The top of this first round seems as unsettled as any in recent memory as there isn’t a whole lot to separate the top 15 or 20 prospects.   Moreover, the Boras factor (prospects falling down the draft chart because of their agent’s outlandish signing demands) muddies the picture quite a bit this year, as it usually does.

Several players have been rumored to be on the Rangers radar for the 11th pick, but that may or may not mean anything.   While it was pretty well known that the Rangers coveted John Danks in 2003 and Blake Beavan last year,  no one connected Junior Mayberry to the Rangers in 2005.   I don’t recall anyone projecting Thomas Diamond to go to Texas the year before that.

One thing I think you can be fairly sure of:   the Rangers will pick whoever they believe is the best player on the board when their turn comes up, regardless of the player’s position or age.  

In the first round, they are no more likely to take a college player (Mark Teixeira 2001, Drew Meyer 2002, Thomas Diamond 2004,  Mayberry 2005, Julio Borbon 2007, Tommy Hunter 2007) than a high school kid  (John Danks 2003, Kasey Kiker 2006, Blake Beavan 2007, Michael Main 2007, Neil Ramirez 2007).

The one caveat to the BPA (best player available) theory is that they may be forced to shy away from any player who insists on a major league contract since they gave one to Julio Borbon last year and are faced with an almost daily struggle to manage the 40-man roster due to pitching instability at the big league level.

Finally, I would add that it’s unlikely that there will be a whole lot to distinguish between the best five or six players on the board when the Rangers pick, and given the incredible depth in the farm system right now, there really aren’t any glaring weaknesses in the organization other than — perhaps — power-hitting corner outfielders (but those are scarce in this draft anyway) so I don’t think the Rangers will draft for need.

When the Rangers make their selections today and tomorrow, I truly believe they will pick the guy they think is the best baseball player — regardless of age or position — who is available at the time.   And given the recent performance of the scouting department, I have much more confidence than usual that they’ll be right.

It’s highly likely that the Rangers pick won’t match up with Baseball America’s ranking or Keith Law’s or John Sickels’ or anyone elses.   It will be their own draft board, created through the hard work of their own area scouts, crosscheckers and advisors.   People with something on the line.  People who will face actual consequences  if they are wrong. 

And with all of that as prelude, let’s look at some of the players I think could become Texas Rangers property tomorrow:

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Eric Hosmer:   1b,  American Heritage HS, Plantation FL

This is probably the best hitter in the draft and belongs among the top three picks based on ability alone, but there is some speculation that he might slide down the board because his agent — you know who — wants a $7mm signing bonus for the kid, and possibly a major league deal.    If Hosmer does slide to the Rangers and they are certain they can negotiate a deal that does not include a major league contract, I do not believe that they will allow a couple of million dollars to stand between them and who will in all likelihood be — by far — the best talent on the board.  

Hosmer has plus-plus bat speed and power from the left side and an advanced approach.  He also wields a rocket arm (he was the closer for his state championship prep team, dealing 95 mph cheese) and while he’s not a plus runner, it’s not inconceivable that he could be moved out to right field as a pro.

The chances of Hosmer being on the board when the Rangers pick aren’t great, but if he is, he’ll probably be Rangers property tonight.

 

Andrew Cashner:   RP,  TCU

A lean 6’6″ right hander who has overwhelmed collegiate hitters this year with a 95 – 97 mph fastball and a fast-improving slider.  The problem is that he’s a closer and the Rangers are highly unlikely to draft a guy at #11 as a closer.    Cashner believes he can stretch out and maintain his velocity as a starter.    

A lot of people would grouse about this pick for a variety of reasons, but I would be fine with it.    Cashner has a plus tool you know can help you in a big way, one way or another and I’m not terribly crazy about drafting guys with the ceiling of a #4 starter or a role player in the top 20 picks.   This is where you shoot the moon on big talent, because the odds of coming across big talent later in the draft diminishes quickly.   

Having said that, I do not care for the philosophy of drafting a third-year college guy with the idea that you like some idea of what you can turn him into instead of being in love with what he actually is.    Other than Hosmer’s bat speed and power,  there just aren’t a ton of plus-plus tools in this draft.   Cashner’s pure velocity certainly gives him a rare skill anybody can use one way or another.

 

Aaron Hicks:   CF, Wilson HS, Long Beach CA.

One of the best pure athletes in the draft, Hicks also comes with relatively refined skills.  In other words, he’s not just a toolbox.   A switch hitter, he’s also a top flight pitching prospect, but wants to play center as a professional.    His hitting skills are, by all accounts, on the upswing this year and he has the gaudy numbers to prove it. 

Hicks is an 80 runner with an 80 arm, much like Engel Beltre.    He’s projected to have more power down the line as he grows and fills out, also like Beltre.      

“I don’t think Aaron would be as happy just playing one out of every five games because he’s such a competitor,” said his coach Andy Hall.    ”I could see early on that this kid was special,” Hall said. “The way he glided through the outfield and prepared himself for every game is something I’ve really respected about him.” 

If Hicks is still on the board when the Rangers pick — and there’s a good chance he will be — he  will likely be the most physically talented player available.   Whether the Rangers believe he’s a good bet to realize his upside will determine whether he’s Texas property by the end of the day.  

Unless Hosmer or Missouri righty Aaron Crow fall to the Rangers at #11, I suspect this will be the guy.

 

Christian Friedrich:    LHSP,   Eastern Kentucky University.

If the Rangers made it a rule to always pick the most talented lefty starter available in the first round, they would own Scott Kazmir, John Danks, Scott Elbert, Mark Pawelek, Kasey Kiker and Aaron Poreda.  Things aren’t going too well for Pawelek, but obviously any club would be thrilled to death to have Kazmir, Danks, Elbert, Kiker and Poreda in their stable.       

When the 11th pick comes around, Friedrich will likely be the best lefty starter on the board and I couldn’t complain if the Rangers call his name.     Friedrich, a third-year guy,  is a late bloomer who has seen his velocity climb from low-to-mid 80′s as a high school guy to high-80′s / low-90′s today.   

His signature pitch is a big droopy 12-6 yakker that has been called unhittable and he augments his two primary offerings with a cutter and a sparsely used change.   Though he is said to command his fastball well to both sides of the plate,  he is prone to not finishing the pitch which results in less movement on a pitch that stays up.  

In many ways, Friedrich — who is an athletic  6’3″,  205 — appears to be something along the lines of a John Danks replacement kit and he’s the kind who could be ready for Arlington within a couple of years. 

 

Aaron Crow:   RHSP,  University of Missouri.

There’s some late talk that Crow, who brings mid-to-high 90′s cheese, might fall all the way to the Rangers, but I don’t believe it.    Crowe rides a 92-96 mph sinker and a high-80′s slider while mixing in a show-me change.   If he somehow slides to 11,  he’s a Ranger tonight.

 

Shooter Hunt:  RHSP,  Tulane University.

This would be the Rangers’ second run at Hunt, whom they drafted three years ago but failed to sign.   Hunt is an erratic righty power pitcher with a low-to-mid 90′s fastball and a hard slurve.   If the Rangers decide that draft for need — a “near ready” starter – and Crow is gone, Hunt will probably be their guy. 

       

In January, 2005, this is what I wrote about  Adrian  Gonzalez – who leads the NL with 54 RBIs and ranks second in the league with 17 homers (more than Josh Hamilton, btw) – ranking him as the top position player prospect in the system:

———————————————————-

1) Adrian Gonzalez (1b)

It seems impossible, but in spite of a tremendous year in the PCL at age 22, Adrian Gonzalez’s stock fell considerably this year because he failed to hit home runs with any significant degree of regularity. But the harder I looked at his season and the more I studied it, putting it in context, the more impressed I was.

Gonzalez, who turned 22 midway through the 2004 season and dropped about 20 pounds of baby fat between the 2003 and 2004 seasons, hit .304 / .364 / .457 at triple A Oklahoma. Gonzalez is younger than Juan Senreiso, Vince Sinisi, Drew Meyer, and fully two years younger than both Ian Kinsler and Jason Botts. He has already made his MLB debut and he hit comfortably over .300 in triple A. What’s not to like? Evidently, hitting only 12 homers is what drove his stock down.

But before we bury Gonzalez on the basis of the theory that he lacks the power to hold down first base for the Rangers, let’s try to put the fact that he slugged “just” .457 in triple A at the age of 22 / 23 in context. When Jason Giambi was 22, he slugged .470 at high A Modesto. Todd Helton slugged .333 at single A Asheville. Jim Edmonds slugged .490 in triple A Edmonton. Erubiel Durazo slugged .464 in the Mexican League. Moises Alou slugged .464 in the low A Sally League. And when Rafael Palmeiro was 22, he slugged .442 at double A Pittsfield. All went on to post career slugging averages right at or comfortably over .500 in the big leagues.

Bottom line: It’s too early to give up on the idea of Gonzalez developing power.

Once upon a time, folks projected Palmeiro onto Gonzalez because they share the same textbook, silky smooth left-handed swing, but lately Gonzalez is more often (and probably more accurately) compared to Mark Grace, John Olerud and Doug Mienkiewicz. He is a high average hitter with some gap power who uses the whole field, wields an exceptional glove and is burdened by unbelievably slow feet. I can’t overstate that last fact: he is probably the slowest professional athlete I’ve ever seen. He’s so horribly slow, that I’ve often heard fans who evidently assume that no one could possibly be that slow complain that he is lazy, which he obviously isn’t. His “technical” footwork around the bag, however, is above average.

Scouts are split on whether or not Gonzalez will ever develop fence power and as this past season wore on it seems as if more and more of them moved into the camp believing that he never will. But before we pigeonhole Gonzalez as a powerless, slick-fielding first baseman in the Mark Grace / Doug Mienkiewicz / John Olerud vein, let’s allow for the possibility that he could change. Last year, he dropped a lot of the baby fat. If he hit the weight room hard this winter and packed some muscle onto his frame, he could certainly could be in line for a breakthrough power season.

Whether the power comes along or not, he can hit and you can be reasonably sure that he always will, no matter who is throwing. He has great balance with a short, quick swing. He distributes line drives all over the ball yard, hitting fastballs and offspeed pitches alike. Gonzalez hits lefties and righties almost equally well, with a slightly better average against lefties and a little more power against right handers (.298 / .360 / .473 vs. RHP and .319 / .373 / .420 vs. LHP). For those of you who believe in “clutch hitting,” get this: Gonzalez hit .343 with runners on base, .353 with runners in scoring position, .320 with runners in scoring position and two outs and an incredible .538 with the bases loaded.

I can’t find a trend in his season. He had a power burst in June, going .360 / .439 / .640 for the month only to regress to .307 / .358 / .409 in July and bounce back a bit to .321 / .372 / .450 in August, which was probably his most representative month.

PROJECTION: I can’t wait to see AG in spring training. I’m hoping to see a stronger, more muscular hitter and if I do, I’ll be very excited because if the power does come, he’s the whole package. If someone wants him to round out the right deal, I have little doubt that the Rangers will be willing to send him packing, but do not be surprised if Mark Teixeira moves to the outfield at some point this season to make room for AG at first. 

FRISCO –  Thomas Nicklaus Diamond made his third rehab start just short of a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery at Dr. Pepper ballpark last night.  

He lost.  

He walked four.

He needed 91 pitches to get through his 4.1 innings.

I loved it:  I thought he looked great.

Diamond began with 44 consecutive fastballs ranging from 88-92, with one hitting 93 and another — a strikeout pitch in the first, when he just wanted to drive a stake through a guy’s heart – hitting 94. 

And then, on his 45th offering, he unleashed his new and-improved 74 mph sharp-breaking yakker, dropping it in for a called strike.

And that’s when I knew that the new TD is going to be better than the old TD.  Much better.   In the roughly 15 starts I’d seen Diamond make during his pre-injury stint with the RoughRiders, I never saw him throw even one breaking ball like that 45th pitch he threw last night.  

Not even close.

In the first, Diamond was especially impressive, facing four hitters and starting off with a first-pitch strike on all four.  He got through the frame on 17 pitches, 13 of which were strikes.  He fanned the first two hitters he faced, including a nasty 92 mph fastball with explosive life to get the first hitter and the 94 mph old-school TD heat to get the second.   His command and confidence were noteworthy.

In an efficient 14-pitch second, TD fired eight strikes and recorded his third whiff.   The one hit he surrendered in the frame was a popup to first base that a confused Max Ramirez failed to field.

Diamond began to show some signs of rust in the third, needing 21 pitches to get through the inning, tossing only seven strikes.   The inning was marred by another awkward play by Ramirez at first when a bad throw pulled him off the bag.  Ramirez fielded the throw, but took a good 10 seconds to realize that the runner never touched first.  He realized the situation (with much prompting) in time to apply the tag, but his poor reaction to the play allowed a baserunner to take an extra base.  In this frame, Diamond began to miss his spots, throwing across his body at times.

In the fourth, Diamond fanned the first two he saw –both on hard-breaking curves at 73 mph and 72 mph  – then gave up a base on balls, followed by a two-run jack as he began to run out of gas. 

Diamond showed poise.  He, at times, showed killer instinct.   He had more movement on his fastball than he had before the injury.   I know that, eventually, Diamond is going to regain his mid-90′s velocity.   I believe he’s going to be a guy with three plus pitches.  And he came across as a guy who is (a) having more fun, and yet (b) much more driven than he was in 2006.

In other news, don’t pencil Max Ramirez in as a first baseman any time soon.  He’s got a lot of work to do.  

And I mean,  a lottalottalotta lot of work. 

I swore I wouldn’t get myself back into a daily posting routine, but through the first two months of the year, that’s exactly what I’ve done.   Out of habit, mostly.   

That’s over.  There are plenty of places to find daily minor league recaps and I’m getting out of that business.

Instead, I’m going to try and post two or three more in-depth profiles of players or developments in the system each week.   Look for something later today or tomorrow morning. 

Regards….

I was asked to join up with some of the best farm reporters in the business for a United Baseball Blogger Mock Draft  which is underway (click on the link to follow the action).

In a bit of a shocker, ESPN’s Keith Law, selecting on behalf of the Tampa Bay Rays, went with Florida State catcher Buster Posey as the top pick in the draft.  

Somewhat surprisingly, Eric Hosmer was still on the board when my turn came up to select on behalf of the Rangers and I couldn’t resist.

 

The objective of this draft wasn’t to go with the guy the selectors would want their team  to pick, but to predict who they would actually pick.    Thus,  while Hosmer likely would have been a top five pick based on talent alone, he dropped down the board because he is a Boras client who is asking for a $7 million signing bonus.

As most of you know, the Rangers have done a lot of business  with Boras over the years and pounced on Boras client Julio Borbon when he slid into the sandwich round last year.    The Rangers have also paid well over slot for Boras clients Vincent Sinisi and Taylor Teagarden in recent years.

As long as Boras doesn’t insist on a major league deal for Hosmer, I believe that the Rangers commitment to stockpiling as much talent as possible in the farm system will allow them to find a way to come to terms with Boras and Hosmer.    Say what you want about major league payroll, but clearly, the Rangers have not skimped when it comes to spending on acquiring and developing young talent in recent years.

Hosmer, a 6’4″,  220 lb. first baseman out of a Miami-area high school,  wields the most powerful bat in the draft. He is the two-time Miami Herald state player of the year, the 2007 Connie Mack and 2007 World Wood Bat Association MVP and a 2007 Rawlings High School Gold Glove winner. 

Swinging from the left side,  he drives tape-measure shots out of every part of the yard and has incredible bat speed that allows him to wait for the ball to get deep in the zone before contact.   He was also the closer on his state championship high school team, dealing 96 mph cheese.